Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $17.36
- Potential payout
- $108.84
- Potential profit
- $91.48
- Multiplier
- 6.27x
- User PnL
- $1.36
Polymarket Trader
DefinitelyRadiationSickness
0xe869b8f9a969cf81425d4a846410a2a5ac1277cc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $62.94
- Realized PnL
- $42.32
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 20
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75.73
- Potential profit
- $75.73
- User PnL
- -$58.31
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 24.3%
- Current value
- $16.25
- Potential payout
- $67.01
- Potential profit
- $50.76
- Multiplier
- 4.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $56.58
- Potential profit
- $56.58
- User PnL
- -$26.01
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33%
- Current value
- $15.43
- Potential payout
- $46.76
- Potential profit
- $31.33
- Multiplier
- 3.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.57
Y
Yes position
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.06
- Potential profit
- $22.06
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.1%
- Current value
- $1.88
- Potential payout
- $20.82
- Potential profit
- $18.94
- Multiplier
- 11.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $12
- User PnL
- -$5.28
Yes position
Will Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next PMQ?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $4.77
- Potential payout
- $9.26
- Potential profit
- $4.49
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$0.23
Yes position
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.6%
- Current value
- $7.25
- Potential payout
- $9.1
- Potential profit
- $1.86
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.28
Yes position
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.99
No position
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $16.65
No position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.9
No position
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.49
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $1.13
Yes position
Will Bernie say "Healthcare" 4+ times in Maine?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.79
Yes position
Will Bernie say "Fight" in Maine?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.6
Yes position
Will Bernie say "Trump" 5+ times in Maine?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.2
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.9
No position
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- -$1.6
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.1%
- Multiplier
- 8.26x
- User PnL
- -$2.16
Yes position
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.77
Yes position
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.43
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.1%
- Multiplier
- 14.08x
- User PnL
- -$13.82
Yes position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$27.97
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ?Yes 78% 9.1 shares
- Will Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next PMQ?Yes 54% 9.26 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes 80% 12.25 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14No 64.7% 15.15 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?No 44% 12 shares
- Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?Yes 68% 22.06 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14No 66% 15.15 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 31% 37.36 shares
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22?No 27% 28.33 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 40% 19.6 shares
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?No 77% 75.73 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 51% 19.61 shares