No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $2.13K
- Potential payout
- $3.47K
- Potential profit
- $1.34K
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $599.51
Polymarket Trader
2017
0xe8a2057abd53d285f7bea590b8f1dff1f04454c2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.89K
- Realized PnL
- $27.14K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $138.88
- Potential payout
- $3.2K
- Potential profit
- $3.06K
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- -$5.12
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$220
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.62K
- Potential profit
- $1.62K
- User PnL
- -$242.53
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$80.92
No position
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $63.25
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- Multiplier
- 18.02x
- User PnL
- $15.11
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $41.71
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$8.34
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.02K
- Potential profit
- $1.02K
- User PnL
- -$301.2
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $100.17
- Potential payout
- $871
- Potential profit
- $770.84
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$108.86
No position
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $32.66
- Potential payout
- $806.41
- Potential profit
- $773.75
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- $0.78
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $110.75
- Potential payout
- $402.72
- Potential profit
- $291.97
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- $6.04
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 70%
- Current value
- $258.15
- Potential payout
- $368.78
- Potential profit
- $110.63
- Multiplier
- 1.43x
- User PnL
- $87.83
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $6.27
- Potential payout
- $348.31
- Potential profit
- $342.04
- Multiplier
- 55.56x
- User PnL
- -$84.14
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $225.48
- Potential profit
- $225.48
- User PnL
- -$3.33
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.92
- Potential profit
- $142.92
- User PnL
- -$1.39
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $54
- Potential profit
- $54
- User PnL
- -$9.96
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 8-14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46.66
- Potential profit
- $46.66
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Yes position
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $2.83
- Potential payout
- $29.81
- Potential profit
- $26.98
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $0.15
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 8-14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.72
- Potential profit
- $21.72
- User PnL
- -$1.74
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.39K
No position
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.93K
No position
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
No position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.5K
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.34K
No position
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.17K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $892.93
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $881.27
No position
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $852.53
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $827.16
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $825.09
Galions Sharks position
LoL: Galions Sharks vs French Flair - Game 1 Winner
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $767.54
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $672.65
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $658.84
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $649.03
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $619.01
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $616.12
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $604.96
No position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $600
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $582.27
No position
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $536.45
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $520
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $494.96
No position
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $465.86
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 52.7% 1,457.04 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 50% 625.6 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 33% 995.16 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 46.4% 303.24 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 45% 20 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 45% 45.54 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 32% 393.19 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 94.2% 948.45 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 93.8% 10 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 93.3% 47.53 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 93.1% 1,338.98 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 84.5% 5,454.43 shares