Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 18.3%
- Current value
- $10.68K
- Potential payout
- $58.5K
- Potential profit
- $47.82K
- Multiplier
- 5.48x
- User PnL
- -$18.57K
Polymarket Trader
Simon4s
0xe8a68017820cc850b4d13cfd8a165eb438b4644b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $62.21K
- Realized PnL
- $32.82K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 81.8%
- Current value
- $47.82K
- Potential payout
- $58.5K
- Potential profit
- $10.68K
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $18.57K
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.55
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $1.1K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$61.25
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $839.09
- Potential payout
- $840.35
- Potential profit
- $1.26
- User PnL
- $66.53
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $6.11
- Potential payout
- $814.71
- Potential profit
- $808.6
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$16.64
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.04
- Potential payout
- $696.66
- Potential profit
- $695.61
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$36.42
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.33
- Potential payout
- $651.8
- Potential profit
- $651.48
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$20.91
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $649.68
- Potential payout
- $650
- Potential profit
- $0.33
- User PnL
- $34.88
Yes position
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $31.2
- Potential payout
- $636.73
- Potential profit
- $605.53
- Multiplier
- 20.41x
- User PnL
- -$150.72
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $499.53
- Potential payout
- $500.28
- Potential profit
- $0.75
- User PnL
- $31.96
No position
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $496.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $3.25
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.69
- Potential payout
- $462.64
- Potential profit
- $461.95
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$27.98
Yes position
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $299.91
- Potential payout
- $416.54
- Potential profit
- $116.63
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $108.16
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $30.08
- Potential payout
- $401
- Potential profit
- $370.93
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$54.15
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $282.1
- Potential payout
- $400.15
- Potential profit
- $118.04
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $6.18
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.3%
- Current value
- $29.21
- Potential payout
- $400.15
- Potential profit
- $370.94
- Multiplier
- 13.70x
- User PnL
- -$5.7
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $29.4
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $370.6
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- -$10.4
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $34
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $366
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$48
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $181.99
- Potential payout
- $399.97
- Potential profit
- $217.98
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- $16.89
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.2
- Potential payout
- $398.76
- Potential profit
- $398.56
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$12.96
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $33.61
- Potential payout
- $353.83
- Potential profit
- $320.21
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$126
Yes position
Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.83
- Potential payout
- $332.47
- Potential profit
- $331.64
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$19.26
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $4.34
- Potential payout
- $279.94
- Potential profit
- $275.6
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$81.18
No position
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $257.29
- Potential payout
- $279.66
- Potential profit
- $22.37
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $25.94
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran strike on US military by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.27K
Yes position
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.32K
No position
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.08K
No position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.97K
Yes position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 10?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.55K
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
Yes position
Lighter Airdrop on December 17?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.48K
No position
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.43K
Yes position
No airdrop in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
Yes position
Lighter Airdrop on December 16?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.29K
No position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.23K
Yes position
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
Yes position
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
Yes position
Lighter Airdrop on December 23?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.04K
No position
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.01K
Yes position
Lighter Airdrop on December 27?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1K
No position
Prince Andrew released by February 19?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $968.22
No position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $950.82
No position
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $939.64
Yes position
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $934.3
Yes position
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $867.1
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $799.88
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $792.1
Yes position
Lighter Airdrop on December 19?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $677.64
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 14% 36.39 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 32% 53.2 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 70% 207 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 73% 200 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 69% 16.12 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 55.1% 186.66 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 55.1% 200.01 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 63.4% 12.63 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 55% 350 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 58% 361.3 shares
- XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ETDown 43% 50 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Yes 1.1% 200 shares