Polymarket Trader

CalculatedRisk08

0xe937357d6b851c08f258fc0b325fd71dfb06d46a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $536.26
Realized PnL: $14.02K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$392

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.9K
Potential profit: $1.9K
User PnL: -$47.38

Yes position

Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $311.01
Potential payout: $1.45K
Potential profit: $1.14K
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$85.27

Yes position

Michael Olise: 1+ goals

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $930
Potential profit: $930
User PnL: -$279

Yes position

Federico Valverde: 1+ goals

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $705.14
Potential profit: $705.14
User PnL: -$176.29

No position

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $115.85
Potential payout: $662
Potential profit: $546.15
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$22.89

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$15.6

No position

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $38.44
Potential payout: $480.5
Potential profit: $442.06
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$61.86

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $308.38
Potential profit: $308.38
User PnL: -$15.38

No position

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $227.04
Potential profit: $227.04
User PnL: -$50.12

Yes position

Will Trump post "Soccer" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $51
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $69
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $20.4

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $18.65
Potential payout: $65.46
Potential profit: $46.81
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$2.3

No position

Ethereum above 1,750 on June 15, 8PM ET?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $1.32
Potential payout: $5.06
Potential profit: $3.75
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: $0.56

No position

Ethereum above 1,760 on June 15, 8PM ET?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$0.15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.75K

Yes position

Will GroenLinks (GL) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.31K

Yes position

Will the US strike Somalia next?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.26K

No position

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16K

Yes position

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04K

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $759.68

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $692.05

No position

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $578.33

Yes position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $475.61

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $455.41

Yes position

Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $430.45

No position

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $310.15

No position

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $302.7

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $286.24

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $282.89

Yes position

Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250.69

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $237

Yes position

Will Claude go down 11+ times in March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $228.28

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on April 1?

Ends Apr 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $212.25

No position

AWS service disrupted by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $211.5

No position

Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $202.4

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $198.68

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194.8

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.21

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Michael Olise: 1+ goals

Yes 30% 630 shares
Michael Olise: 1+ goals

Yes 30% 300 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?

Up 18% 1,583.5 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?

Up 18% 1,223.5 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

Up 16% 31.25 shares
Ethereum above 1,760 on June 15, 8PM ET?

No 3% 5 shares
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 15, 7PM ET?

No 99.9% 50 shares
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals

Yes 25% 635 shares
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals

Yes 25% 70.14 shares
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

No 22% 472 shares
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15?

Yes 5% 108.38 shares
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

No 21% 90 shares