Polymarket Trader

SwampDust

0xe9a80665c18e8d750deaee4bf28ea32aa5ae416c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $491
Realized PnL: $7.74K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $487.78
Potential payout: $3.36K
Potential profit: $2.88K
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$412.22

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.76K
Potential profit: $2.76K
User PnL: -$65.99

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$125

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.54K
Potential profit: $1.54K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $734.13
Potential profit: $734.13
User PnL: -$35

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $600
User PnL: -$100

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $561.22
Potential profit: $561.22
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $555.56
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $277.78
Potential profit: $277.78
User PnL: -$20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $243.78
Potential profit: $243.78
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $3.22
Potential payout: $136.99
Potential profit: $133.77
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$6.78

No position

Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $102.71
Potential profit: $102.71
User PnL: -$6

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $98.53
Potential profit: $98.53
User PnL: -$62.07

Yes position

Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $95.24
Potential profit: $95.24
User PnL: -$20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $92.59
Potential profit: $92.59
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.03
Potential profit: $3.03
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.86K

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $683.59

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $506.58

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $476.58

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $421.09

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $415.95

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $393.82

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $348.78

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $345.19

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $329.37

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $326.36

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: December

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $291.25

No position

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $186.19

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.31

No position

Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $169.79

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.26

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.07

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105.88

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.81

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.1

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.45

No position

Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $63.1

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.78

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.78

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Yes 62.1% 322.07 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 6.7% 11 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

No 63% 98.53 shares
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 13, 2026?

No 5.8% 102.71 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Yes 51% 629.79 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Yes 56% 410.71 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Yes 16.7% 600 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Yes 48.9% 219.08 shares
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

No 7.2% 277.78 shares
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 21% 95.24 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 17% 1,176.47 shares
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Yes 0.1% 1,000 shares