begen

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $749
Potential profit: $749
User PnL: -$11.99

Yes position

Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $650
Potential profit: $650
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $10.63
Potential payout: $545
Potential profit: $534.37
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: $4.63

No position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $530
Potential profit: $530
User PnL: -$11.98

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $486
Potential profit: $486
User PnL: -$11.98

Yes position

Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $483.84
Potential profit: $483.84
User PnL: -$14.63

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $460
Potential profit: $460
User PnL: -$23.95

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.25
Potential payout: $450
Potential profit: $447.75
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$3.75

Yes position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $4.9
Potential payout: $445.36
Potential profit: $440.46
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$5.11

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $416
Potential profit: $416
User PnL: -$17.94

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $16.32
Potential payout: $403
Potential profit: $386.68
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: $4.35

No position

Will Iran Play in the World Cup?

Ends Aug 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400.22
Potential profit: $400.22
User PnL: -$6.36

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $353
Potential profit: $353
User PnL: -$3.99

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$12

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $293.1
Potential profit: $292.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$19.04

No position

o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $289.46
Potential profit: $289.46
User PnL: -$20.48

Yes position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $2.28
Potential payout: $285
Potential profit: $282.72
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$3.71

No position

Will Solana dip to $70 in June?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $277.26
Potential profit: $277.26
User PnL: -$18.42

Yes position

Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.9
Potential payout: $253.95
Potential profit: $252.05
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$3.19

No position

Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $240
Potential profit: $240
User PnL: -$11.96

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $215
Potential profit: $215
User PnL: -$3.98

Yes position

Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $2.4
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $197.6
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$3.6

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.04

No position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.02

Yes position

Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.44

No position

Iran closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.8

Yes position

Will XRP reach $1.80 in June?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: $7.4

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 18 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.07

Yes position

Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 85.3%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $7.05

No position

Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30?

Implied probability: 64%
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: $6.82

No position

Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?

Implied probability: 46.5%
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $4.6

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.44

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.43

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.16

Yes position

Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.92

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $2.54

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.42

No position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: $2.4

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: $2.07

No position

Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.75

Yes position

Will Solana reach $90 in June?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: $1.49

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.44

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $1.28

Yes position

Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Multiplier: 41.67x
User PnL: $1.2

Yes position

Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?