Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $53
- Potential payout
- $200.02
- Potential profit
- $147.01
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$19
Polymarket Trader
smarttradder
0xea2837f7e7c552a4e34045fa206f97ffc50f3a0b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.29K
- Realized PnL
- $16.42K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $93
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $107
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- -$21
No position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Current value
- $190.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $9.3
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$4.3
Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Current value
- $7.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $192.7
- Multiplier
- 27.40x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
Yes position
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $6.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $193.3
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
No position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $54.99
- Potential payout
- $199.97
- Potential profit
- $144.98
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: Other
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $1.3
- Potential payout
- $199.97
- Potential profit
- $198.67
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $17.41
- Potential payout
- $124.34
- Potential profit
- $106.94
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$1.24
Yes position
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
Ends Nov 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $40.2
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $79.8
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- $0.6
Yes position
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $9.53
- Potential payout
- $100.33
- Potential profit
- $90.8
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$3.51
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $72.52
- Potential payout
- $100.02
- Potential profit
- $27.51
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Current value
- $3.25
- Potential payout
- $100.02
- Potential profit
- $96.77
- Multiplier
- 30.77x
- User PnL
- -$7.35
Y
Yes position
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $79.01
- Potential payout
- $100.01
- Potential profit
- $21
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $7.5
- Potential payout
- $100.01
- Potential profit
- $92.51
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $58.5
- Potential payout
- $100.01
- Potential profit
- $41.5
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- -$6.5
Yes position
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $78.5
- Potential payout
- $100.01
- Potential profit
- $21.5
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $81.49
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $18.51
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $0.49
No position
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Current value
- $94.65
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $5.35
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.15
N
No position
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $85
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $15
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $14.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $85.5
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $88.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $11.5
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $73.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $26.5
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $68.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $31.5
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.7%
- Current value
- $10.7
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $89.3
- Multiplier
- 9.35x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.51K
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19K
Knicks position
Knicks vs. Kings
Ends Mar 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $950.87
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $947.7
No position
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $790.93
Yes position
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $753.72
No position
Liverpool wins the Premier League?
Ends May 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $725.23
No position
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $661.91
Yes position
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $638.98
Lakers position
Suns vs. Lakers
Ends Mar 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $620
No position
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $598.98
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $586.75
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $583.96
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $580.5
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $578.79
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $560.84
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $536.92
Yes position
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $529.87
Yes position
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $529.77
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $527.18
Yes position
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $514.25
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $512.98
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21?
Ends Feb 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $508.75
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $492
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes 5.2% 89.87 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 36% 58.26 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 37% 41.74 shares
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 4% 100 shares
- Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Yes 9% 100 shares
- Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 98% 10 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 30% 100 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 5.4% 100 shares
- Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?No 77% 100 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 57% 38 shares
- Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Yes 3% 94.93 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 29% 100 shares