No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $900.09
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $140.48
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $106.88
Polymarket Trader
kircsia
0xea4c3f05c2139867dd9bd4cb4285447934e29200
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.3K
- Realized PnL
- $1.07K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $399.2
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $0.8
- User PnL
- $45.9
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $247.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $52.5
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $253.49
- Potential payout
- $299.99
- Potential profit
- $46.5
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $25.5
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $99.4
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.6
- User PnL
- $16.4
No position
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $97.55
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $2.45
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $93.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $6.5
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $3.5
N
No position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $98.85
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $1.15
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.85
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $30.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $19.75
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- -$1.25
No position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.8%
- Current value
- $46.38
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $3.63
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.23
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $35.8
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $4.2
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $285.6
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $230.8
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $157.03
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119.4
No position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.4
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.2
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.5
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.8
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.9
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.31
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.2
No position
Foreign intervention in Gaza in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.03
Yes position
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.1
No position
US strike on Colombia by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.55
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.47
No position
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.8
No position
Will TikTok be banned in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.54
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.58
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.4
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.3
No position
US strikes Iran by October 31?
Ends Oct 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.7
No position
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.4
No position
Russia announces air truce by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.4
No position
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?No 56% 4.71 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 1?No 92% 10 shares
- US strike on Colombia by March 31?No 96.5% 100 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?No 62% 70 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?No 62% 110 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?No 62% 60 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?No 98.8% 100 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No 79% 30 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No 74% 20 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No 83% 100 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?No 98% 9 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes 51% 20 shares