Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.6%
- Current value
- $246.87
- Potential payout
- $322.5
- Potential profit
- $75.63
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- -$3.13
Polymarket Trader
sifakatrade
0xea5491e39334ec3f71d93dfd8355f16865e5b3dd
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $485.31
- Realized PnL
- $32.56
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.2%
- Current value
- $199.37
- Potential payout
- $315.26
- Potential profit
- $115.89
- Multiplier
- 1.58x
- User PnL
- -$50.63
Yes position
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $45.91
- Potential profit
- $45.91
- User PnL
- -$37.37
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $32.26
- Potential payout
- $36.65
- Potential profit
- $4.4
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.47
No position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.4%
- Current value
- $2.57
- Potential payout
- $4.18
- Potential profit
- $1.61
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.1
- Potential profit
- $4.1
- User PnL
- -$1.23
No position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.8%
- Current value
- $2.53
- Potential payout
- $3.01
- Potential profit
- $0.49
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.33
- Potential profit
- $2.33
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $0.77
- Potential payout
- $2.04
- Potential profit
- $1.28
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 67%
- Current value
- $0.96
- Potential payout
- $1.43
- Potential profit
- $0.47
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?
Ends Nov 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.95
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $6.33
N
No position
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $6.25
N
No position
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $6.01
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $2.2
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $1.85
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $0.59
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Ends Aug 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $0.26
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 77.5% 322.5 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No 83% 84.1 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No 69% 46.15 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?No 84% 36.65 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No 83% 84.11 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No 86% 28.57 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No 78.7% 320.51 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No 79.3% 315.26 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No 65% 46.15 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No 84% 28.57 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No 78% 320.51 shares
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?No 52% 2.04 shares