0xea85...12dd

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $193.35
Potential payout: $194.32
Potential profit: $0.97
User PnL: $74.2

Yes position

Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $122.43
Potential payout: $123.42
Potential profit: $0.99
User PnL: $6.14

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.49
Potential payout: $76.1
Potential profit: $75.61
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$6.07

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $8.89
Potential payout: $36.3
Potential profit: $27.4
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$0.91

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $33.09
Potential payout: $34.07
Potential profit: $0.99
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.72

Yes position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $4.12
Potential payout: $30.51
Potential profit: $26.4
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.88

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $27.03
Potential profit: $26.9
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.87

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $26.15
Potential payout: $26.19
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $1.66
Potential payout: $20.71
Potential profit: $19.05
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$1.86

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $0.57
Potential payout: $19.78
Potential profit: $19.2
Multiplier: 34.48x
User PnL: -$1.21

No position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $16.55
Potential payout: $17.56
Potential profit: $1.01
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.48

Yes position

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.12
Potential payout: $16.39
Potential profit: $16.27
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.88

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $16.22
Potential payout: $16.33
Potential profit: $0.11
User PnL: $1.72

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $15.51
Potential payout: $15.64
Potential profit: $0.13
User PnL: $0.86

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $1.89
Potential payout: $13.03
Potential profit: $11.14
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.11

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $10.53
Potential payout: $12.32
Potential profit: $1.79
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.92

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.72
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.39
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $10.67
Potential profit: $10.45
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$1.79

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $8.12
Potential payout: $8.83
Potential profit: $0.71
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.46
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $7.87
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.54

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $7.66
Potential payout: $7.98
Potential profit: $0.32
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.36

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.46
Potential payout: $7.13
Potential profit: $6.67
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$3.39

Yes position

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $1.29
Potential payout: $5.84
Potential profit: $4.56
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$0.58

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $0.69
Potential payout: $5.11
Potential profit: $4.42
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$2.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $401.72

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.92

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.1

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.35

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $24.21

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.22

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.42

Yes position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.82

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.35

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.17

Kamilla Rakhimova position

La Bisbal: Elena Pridankina vs Kamilla Rakhimova

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.99

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.42

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.21

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.23

Yes position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.19

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.81

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.54

Raul Brancaccio position

Ostrava: Raul Brancaccio vs Toby Samuel

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.47

Yes position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.42

No position

Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.86

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.69

Yes position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?