Polymarket Trader

Arrth

0xeafc121933b120f5401668b06a4072e1f788a390

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $437.67
Realized PnL: $428.02
Win rate: 95.8%
Open positions: 9
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $247.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $52.5
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $12

Yes position

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $265
Potential profit: $265
User PnL: -$168.85

No position

Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $48.74
Potential payout: $249.95
Potential profit: $201.21
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $6.96

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $12.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $87.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $82
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $18
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$3.69

Yes position

Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $42.28
Potential payout: $56
Potential profit: $13.72
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42
Potential profit: $42
User PnL: -$13.42

No position

Base FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $4.65
Potential payout: $19.37
Potential profit: $14.72
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: $1.16

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $1
User PnL: -$0.67

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $73.37

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.6%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $73.08

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.29

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.15

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $25.94

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.84

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: $24.49

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $16.9

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $16.35

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.17

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.31

Yes position

Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $10.46

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.35

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $6.81

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $6.42

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $6.11

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 53.5%
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $4.8

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $4.23

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.15

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.8

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 61%
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: $1.8

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?

Ends Sep 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

No 27% 100 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 81% 10 shares
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 64% 250 shares
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

No 17% 49.99 shares
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

No 17% 99.99 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 86% 100 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 86% 20 shares
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

No 17% 99.99 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 86% 100 shares
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

No 79% 150 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 29% 91 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 95% 152 shares