Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $118.35
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.13K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$91.64
Polymarket Trader
0xEb1f0acB9D10E0A3C9DcFd8a530AAa1FE1F94B42-1767859491974
0xeb1f0acb9d10e0a3c9dcfd8a530aaa1fe1f94b42
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $608.86
- Realized PnL
- $252.84
- Win rate
- 25%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.3%
- Current value
- $28.7
- Potential payout
- $347.83
- Potential profit
- $319.13
- Multiplier
- 12.12x
- User PnL
- -$51.3
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $279.68
- Potential payout
- $319.64
- Potential profit
- $39.95
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $29.68
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $110.12
- Potential payout
- $119.05
- Potential profit
- $8.93
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $10.12
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100.13
- Potential profit
- $100.13
- User PnL
- -$69.54
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $1.46
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $81.88
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$23.54
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $57.33
- Potential payout
- $57.47
- Potential profit
- $0.14
- User PnL
- $7.33
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $2.79
- Potential payout
- $29.41
- Potential profit
- $26.62
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$2.21
Yes position
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $4.67
- Potential payout
- $19.88
- Potential profit
- $15.21
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $1.5
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $12.79
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $4.26
- Potential payout
- $5.13
- Potential profit
- $0.87
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $2.26
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.43
- Potential profit
- $1.43
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.36
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.9
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.14
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.24
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.94
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42
No position
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- -$0.43
Yes position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.81
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.93
Yes position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.05
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Netanyahu out by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.2
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.15
Yes position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.6
No position
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$10.17
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 25% 19.88 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?No 75% 6.09 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?No 82% 6.1 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 3.1% 163.37 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Yes 30% 83.33 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes 10% 100 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 23% 347.83 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 44% 263.49 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 70% 1.43 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 83% 80.72 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes 20% 50 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 67% 446.27 shares