4GRF

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.17
Potential payout: $180
Potential profit: $178.83
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $4.11
Potential payout: $22.83
Potential profit: $18.72
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$0.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.77
Potential profit: $22.77
User PnL: -$2.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $7.82
Potential payout: $22.35
Potential profit: $14.53
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: $2.83

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $22.14
Potential profit: $22.13
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$6.55

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 47.9%
Current value: $9.9
Potential payout: $20.7
Potential profit: $10.8
Multiplier: 2.09x
User PnL: $6.08

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $20.68
Potential profit: $20.67
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $20.28
Potential profit: $20.23
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$5.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.39

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $16.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $3.3
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $7.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $8
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $12
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $15
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $5
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $4.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$8.44

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 41%
Current value: $8.2
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $11.8
Multiplier: 2.44x
User PnL: -$0.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.66
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$2.16

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.74

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $13
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.89

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.39

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $18.76
Potential profit: $18.75
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.55

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $17.94
Potential profit: $17.93
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.75
Potential profit: $17.75
User PnL: -$9.85

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $17.22
Potential profit: $17.21
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.41

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.19

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.85

No position

Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.16

Yes position

Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.3

No position

Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.51

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.7

No position

Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: -$0.91

No position

Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: -$0.92

No position

Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?