Polymarket Trader

randomgambla

0xec2c2bd1cdd868112d2ae640bbc10eed55d34676

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $978.83
Realized PnL: $534.4
Win rate: 75%
Open positions: 23
Closed positions: 8
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $229.5
Potential payout: $2.55K
Potential profit: $2.32K
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$101

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $473.75
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.03K
Multiplier: 5.28x
User PnL: $6.25

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $906.49
Potential profit: $906.49
User PnL: -$104.99

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $800
User PnL: -$30.2

Yes position

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 10.9%
Current value: $76.3
Potential payout: $699.98
Potential profit: $623.68
Multiplier: 9.17x
User PnL: $4.3

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 30%
Current value: $182.29
Potential payout: $607.62
Potential profit: $425.33
Multiplier: 3.33x
User PnL: $73.07

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $599.98
Potential profit: $599.98
User PnL: -$39.6

Yes position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $507.47
Potential profit: $507.47
User PnL: -$231.04

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $12.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $487.75
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$27.75

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $499.99
User PnL: -$17.5

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.85
Potential profit: $499.85
User PnL: -$17.75

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.79
Potential profit: $499.79
User PnL: -$7.84

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.71
Potential profit: $499.71
User PnL: -$32.82

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$118

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$56

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$27.07

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 8.1%
Current value: $4.74
Potential payout: $58.57
Potential profit: $53.83
Multiplier: 12.35x
User PnL: $2.28

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$24

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $342

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.49

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6

OpenAI position

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 18%
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $2.4

SpaceX position

SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 97.1%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.64

Anthropic position

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 82%
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$2

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

No 18.7% 2,500 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 6.8% 400 shares
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

Yes 18% 200 shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

Yes 9% 682.69 shares
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

Yes 18% 400 shares
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 3.5% 499.99 shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

Yes 11% 400 shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

Yes 9% 500 shares
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 7.2% 119 shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

Yes 11% 650 shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

Yes 10% 741 shares
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

OpenAI 31% 30 shares