No position
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $95.43
- Potential payout
- $4.66K
- Potential profit
- $4.56K
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$416.63
Polymarket Trader
0xec4d...be21
0xec4ddb228b18c52b1093cf43b1b834584450be21
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $2.23K
- Realized PnL
- -$0.05
- Win rate
- 0%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 1
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $63.02
- Potential payout
- $3.94K
- Potential profit
- $3.88K
- Multiplier
- 62.50x
- User PnL
- -$449.04
Yes position
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $49.97
- Potential payout
- $2.22K
- Potential profit
- $2.17K
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- -$260.93
Yes position
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $453.88
- Potential payout
- $2.06K
- Potential profit
- $1.61K
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $127.26
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.69K
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$109.08
No position
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $225.03
- Potential payout
- $1.29K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $57.86
No position
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $238.05
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $819.94
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $5.29
Yes position
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $147.02
- Potential payout
- $700.09
- Potential profit
- $553.07
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- $35
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $73.61
- Potential payout
- $640.08
- Potential profit
- $566.47
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$54.41
Y
Yes position
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44%
- Current value
- $176.02
- Potential payout
- $400.05
- Potential profit
- $224.03
- Multiplier
- 2.27x
- User PnL
- -$16
No position
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $55.98
- Potential payout
- $311
- Potential profit
- $255.02
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- $6.22
No position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $94.6
- Potential payout
- $310.15
- Potential profit
- $215.56
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- $7.75
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $62.19
- Potential payout
- $282.68
- Potential profit
- $220.49
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- $2.83
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 27%
- Current value
- $71.12
- Potential payout
- $263.41
- Potential profit
- $192.29
- Multiplier
- 3.70x
- User PnL
- -$71.12
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $132.83
- Potential payout
- $227.06
- Potential profit
- $94.23
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- -$5.68
No position
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?
Ends Jul 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 29%
- Current value
- $59.03
- Potential payout
- $203.56
- Potential profit
- $144.52
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- $6.11
Yes position
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $48.4
- Potential payout
- $169.89
- Potential profit
- $121.49
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- $2.53
No position
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $15.23
- Potential payout
- $112.82
- Potential profit
- $97.59
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $1.69
No position
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $16.1
- Potential payout
- $92
- Potential profit
- $75.9
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $0.46
Y
Yes position
Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?
Ends Jul 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $9.14
- Potential payout
- $87.08
- Potential profit
- $77.94
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$7.4
Yes position
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $9.19
- Potential payout
- $43.78
- Potential profit
- $34.59
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- $0.88
Y
Yes position
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32%
- Current value
- $5.05
- Potential payout
- $15.78
- Potential profit
- $10.73
- Multiplier
- 3.13x
- User PnL
- $2.05
Y
Yes position
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.2%
- Current value
- $2.52
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $7.48
- Multiplier
- 3.97x
- User PnL
- $0.9
Yes position
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 46%
- Current value
- $2.38
- Potential payout
- $5.17
- Potential profit
- $2.79
- Multiplier
- 2.17x
- User PnL
- $0.21
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.4%
- Multiplier
- 2.91x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No 65% 5 shares
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes 48% 15 shares
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?Yes 16% 700.09 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?Yes 20% 115.5 shares
- Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?No 16% 257 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?No 54% 22.24 shares
- Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Yes 19% 15.78 shares
- Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?Yes 19% 37.61 shares
- Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?No 13% 130 shares
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?No 26% 50 shares
- Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Yes 22% 208 shares
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?No 13% 1,235.88 shares