Polymarket Trader

marianox

0xec938d3d4f6cc728095df19132a914758dfea43e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $98.99
Realized PnL: $60.29
Win rate: 37.5%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 16
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $370.26
Potential profit: $370.26
User PnL: -$17.96

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.71
Potential payout: $285.71
Potential profit: $285
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$19.29

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 20.7%
Current value: $17.21
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $66.13
Multiplier: 4.84x
User PnL: $7.21

Yes position

Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $67.4
Potential profit: $67.4
User PnL: -$1

No position

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $36.43
Potential payout: $53.57
Potential profit: $17.14
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $6.43

Yes position

Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $52.63
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $4.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $45.75
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$8.75

Yes position

Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.86
Potential profit: $42.86
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $32.88
Potential payout: $41.38
Potential profit: $8.5
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $2.88

No position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.26
Potential payout: $27.03
Potential profit: $26.77
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$9.74

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $24.97
Potential profit: $24.75
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.79

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $15.67
Potential profit: $15.67
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.99

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $1.16
Potential payout: $12.2
Potential profit: $11.04
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$3.84

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $5.88
Potential payout: $6.49
Potential profit: $0.62
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.88

Yes position

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $5.56
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.79

No position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $4.56

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.35

Yes position

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.78

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.42

No position

No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 88.5%
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Australian Open?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Australian Open?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 7% 285.71 shares
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027

No 90% 10 shares
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?

Yes 1.9% 52.63 shares
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?

Yes 1.5% 67.4 shares
Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?

Yes 5% 20 shares
Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?

Yes 5% 120 shares
Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?

Yes 5% 200.36 shares
Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?

Yes 3.2% 29.9 shares
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

No 70% 35.08 shares
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

No 37% 27.03 shares
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

No 72.5% 41.38 shares
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10?

Down 23% 4.35 shares