Polymarket Trader

0xeCE4a572234d755c7660bb2486E3eed3b40ab400-1772354744870

0xece4a572234d755c7660bb2486e3eed3b40ab400

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $58.68
Realized PnL: -$124.4
Win rate: 0%
Open positions: 20
Closed positions: 6
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70K
Potential profit: $70K
User PnL: -$70

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.94K
Potential profit: $5.94K
User PnL: -$140

Yes position

Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.33K
Potential profit: $3.33K
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.04K
Potential profit: $2.04K
User PnL: -$20

No position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $829.13
Potential profit: $829.13
User PnL: -$59.35

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $410.91
Potential profit: $410.91
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $372.5
Potential profit: $372.5
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $327.33
Potential profit: $327.33
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.48
Potential payout: $192.59
Potential profit: $192.11
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$51.52

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $135.14
Potential profit: $135.14
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $4.96
Potential payout: $87.72
Potential profit: $82.76
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $29.96
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $50.04
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $47.62
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will JD Vance say "Crazy" during meetings with Orbán?

Ends Apr 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46.89
Potential profit: $46.89
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $18.81
Potential payout: $33.9
Potential profit: $15.08
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$1.19

No position

Will JD Vance say "Hungary" or "Hungarian" 8+ times during meetings with Orbán?

Ends Apr 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.29
Potential profit: $24.29
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $2.99
Potential payout: $21.58
Potential profit: $18.59
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $1.48
Potential payout: $1.49
Potential profit: $0.02
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.48

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.41

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$39.45

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$82.54

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 13.9% 21.58 shares
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.7% 87.72 shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 37.5% 80 shares
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Yes 59% 33.9 shares
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Yes 68% 58.82 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 12.2% 410.91 shares
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

No 33% 303.03 shares
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

No 1.6% 1,250 shares
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

No 67% 1.49 shares
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?

Yes 0.1% 70,000 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Yes 1% 2,036.7 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Yes 21% 47.62 shares