Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $2.44M
- Potential payout
- $2.45M
- Potential profit
- $6.13K
- User PnL
- $9.84K
Polymarket Trader
elmcap2
@elm_cap
0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $8.16M
- Realized PnL
- $1.32M
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $1.66M
- Potential payout
- $1.66M
- Potential profit
- $2.49K
- User PnL
- $4.05K
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.26M
- Potential payout
- $1.26M
- Potential profit
- $630.54
- User PnL
- $3.72K
No position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $741.23K
- Potential payout
- $746.08K
- Potential profit
- $4.85K
- User PnL
- $30.6K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $470.94K
- Potential payout
- $472.12K
- Potential profit
- $1.18K
- User PnL
- $1.14K
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $297.99K
- Potential payout
- $300.24K
- Potential profit
- $2.25K
- User PnL
- $5.54K
No position
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $224.26K
- Potential payout
- $225.61K
- Potential profit
- $1.35K
- User PnL
- $4.94K
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $179.51K
- Potential payout
- $190.67K
- Potential profit
- $11.15K
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $11.47K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $124.31K
- Potential payout
- $125K
- Potential profit
- $687.5
- User PnL
- $238.5
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $113.08K
- Potential payout
- $113.14K
- Potential profit
- $56.57
- User PnL
- $282.96
No position
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $104.49K
- Potential payout
- $106.85K
- Potential profit
- $2.35K
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.31K
No position
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $81.46K
- Potential payout
- $86.21K
- Potential profit
- $4.74K
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $3.89K
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $75.63K
- Potential payout
- $75.97K
- Potential profit
- $341.89
- User PnL
- $804.11
No position
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $46.95K
- Potential payout
- $47.17K
- Potential profit
- $212.25
- User PnL
- $508.22
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $45.3K
- Potential payout
- $45.73K
- Potential profit
- $434.48
- User PnL
- $38.65
No position
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $42.44K
- Potential payout
- $42.68K
- Potential profit
- $234.72
- User PnL
- $403.28
No position
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $39.6K
- Potential payout
- $40.04K
- Potential profit
- $440.46
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $157.49
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $35.03K
- Potential payout
- $37.07K
- Potential profit
- $2.04K
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.57K
No position
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $35.09K
- Potential payout
- $35.44K
- Potential profit
- $354.44
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $372.44
No position
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $30.74K
- Potential payout
- $32.88K
- Potential profit
- $2.14K
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.4K
Yes position
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $28.49K
- Potential payout
- $30.21K
- Potential profit
- $1.72K
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $491.34
No position
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $28.55K
- Potential payout
- $28.67K
- Potential profit
- $114.67
- User PnL
- $221.25
Yes position
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $25.03K
- Potential payout
- $25.11K
- Potential profit
- $75.32
- User PnL
- $485.01
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $22.62K
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $2.37K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.32K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Biden finish his term?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $201.6K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.47K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $99.72K
No position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.81K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.19K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.79K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.02K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.57K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.91K
No position
Will Biden resign before the election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.82K
No position
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.75K
No position
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.72K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?
Ends May 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.71K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?
Ends Jan 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.92K
No position
Biden resigns from presidency by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.01K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.83K
Yes position
Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?
Ends Jul 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.25K
No position
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?
Ends Sep 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.9K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.28K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.39K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.78K
No position
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.42K
No position
Will Base launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.38K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.59K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.8% 55,496.61 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 99.7% 177,998.87 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.7% 199,991.3 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.7% 256,989.09 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.6% 263,541.14 shares
- Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?No 99% 227.29 shares
- Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?No 98.8% 110.02 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 99.5% 25,321.03 shares
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?No 99.1% 69 shares
- Iran leadership change by June 30?No 98.5% 6,182.22 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 98.4% 1,292.93 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 98.9% 30,734.28 shares