Polymarket Trader

usuallyconfident

0xed4df44bf64c17abb9f1bcd961b8490f6a15996c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $20.44
Realized PnL: -$86.89
Win rate: 29.2%
Open positions: 16
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Maduro out by November 30, 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $1.15K
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $1.07K
User PnL: -$30.92

Paris Saint-Germain FC position

Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $539.86
Potential profit: $539.86
User PnL: -$37.79

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $490.51
Potential profit: $490.51
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $360.2
Potential profit: $360.2
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $20.44
Potential payout: $278.04
Potential profit: $257.61
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$30.88

Yes position

Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $249.87
Potential profit: $249.87
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $217.93
Potential profit: $217.93
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $135.14
Potential profit: $135.14
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $121
Potential profit: $121
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $89.58
Potential profit: $89.58
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.11

Yes position

Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.88

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.07

Yes position

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.38

Yes position

Epstein client list released in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.48

No position

Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

USDT depeg in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.16

No position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.55

No position

Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.58

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.6

Yes position

Weed rescheduled in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.81

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.06

Yes position

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.81

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$7.33

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$7.69

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$13.82

Yes position

Maduro out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$64.39

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$65.34

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?

Yes 18.5% 278.04 shares
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 2.9% 1,066.21 shares
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)

Paris Saint-Germain FC 7% 539.86 shares
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?

Yes 27% 147.59 shares
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?

Yes 22% 147.59 shares
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Yes 1% 490.51 shares
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Yes 2.8% 360.2 shares
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Yes 4% 249.87 shares
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Yes 4.6% 217.93 shares
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?

Yes 1.5% 66.67 shares
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?

Yes 28.5% 47.71 shares
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?

Yes 5.6% 89.58 shares