Polymarket Trader

aberdo

0xed686eb2da685fc9271d46e713f80bd69906ea90

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.18
Realized PnL: $3.1
Win rate: 79.2%
Open positions: 1
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $1.18
Potential payout: $2.82
Potential profit: $1.63
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: -$0.82

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.65

No position

Will Sinners win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.59

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.14

Yes position

Will Trump say 'tariff' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the Union?

Ends Mar 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08

Yes position

Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 84?

Ends May 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.21

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" 5+ times during Crypto Summit on Friday?

Ends Mar 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.2

No position

US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?

Ends Mar 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on April 9?

Ends Apr 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30?

Ends May 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11?

Ends Apr 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 30?

Ends Apr 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Randy Fine win by 10-15%?

Ends Apr 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" 10+ times during Crypto Summit on Friday?

Ends Mar 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.39

Yes position

Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.41

No position

Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?

Ends Apr 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Over position

Games Total: O/U 3.5

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$2.55

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Yes 71% 2.82 shares
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2

Bilibili Gaming 80% 6.21 shares
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Yes 75.9% 6.59 shares
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?

No 98.6% 7.62 shares
Games Total: O/U 3.5

Over 79% 2.53 shares
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Yes 98.4% 4.07 shares
Will Sinners win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?

No 45% 3.78 shares
Will Sinners win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Yes 56% 7.14 shares
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?

Yes 92% 24.84 shares
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?

Yes 95% 22.85 shares
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?

Yes 96.8% 2.36 shares
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?

Yes 23% 19.6 shares