DonQuant

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $422.01
Potential payout: $476.85
Potential profit: $54.84
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $130.42

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $345.71
Potential profit: $345.71
User PnL: -$90

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $271.4
Potential profit: $271.4
User PnL: -$115.74

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $161.5
Potential profit: $161.5
User PnL: -$12

Yes position

Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $132.16
Potential payout: $157.33
Potential profit: $25.17
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $21.22

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150.74
Potential profit: $150.74
User PnL: -$80

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $133.33
User PnL: -$2

No position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $124.27
Potential payout: $131.5
Potential profit: $7.23
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $44.27

Yes position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $95.44
Potential payout: $128.11
Potential profit: $32.67
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $39.07

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $124.18
Potential profit: $124.18
User PnL: -$70

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1.3
Potential payout: $108.33
Potential profit: $107.03
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$11.7

Yes position

Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $14.64
Potential payout: $104.55
Potential profit: $89.92
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$7.36

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $4.9
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $95.1
Multiplier: 20.41x
User PnL: -$5.1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.08
Potential profit: $81.08
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.61
Potential profit: $44.61
User PnL: -$30

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.09
Potential profit: $9.09
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $214.77

Yes position

Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $135.33

Yes position

Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.99

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.21

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.97

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.61

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.93

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.81

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.77

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.92

No position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.4

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.79

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.93

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.31

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.94

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.92

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.76

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.71

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.56

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET