Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 75%
- Current value
- $1.36K
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $454.55
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- -$336.36
Polymarket Trader
backd
0xee053feb861b7589c41ca07b314ed6cb32bf9bd7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.14K
- Realized PnL
- $1.23K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- User PnL
- -$3.2
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.1%
- Current value
- $717.08
- Potential payout
- $833.33
- Potential profit
- $116.25
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$82.92
No position
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $27.07
- Potential payout
- $34.48
- Potential profit
- $7.41
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $7.07
Yes position
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.24
- Potential profit
- $30.24
- User PnL
- -$26.01
Yes position
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $13.66
- Potential payout
- $17.74
- Potential profit
- $4.08
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- $2.66
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.86
- Potential profit
- $14.86
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $13.68
- Potential payout
- $13.83
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.68
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.96
- Potential profit
- $12.96
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.51
- Potential profit
- $11.51
- User PnL
- -$10
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $447.91
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $243.64
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $133.04
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.51
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.94
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.79
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.17
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.26
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.86
Yes position
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.33
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.11
No position
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.68
Yes position
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.72
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.92
No position
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.84
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.57
Yes position
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.16
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.12
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.04
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.93
Yes position
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.85
Yes position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.22
Yes position
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.1
Yes position
Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes 96% 833.33 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes 93.5% 1,818.18 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 13.8% 606.06 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 16.5% 606.06 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes 83% 1,836.54 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes 33% 363.64 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 82.6% 2,430.1 shares
- Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?No 58% 34.48 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 93% 2,430.11 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 99.7% 2,287.36 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes 94% 13.83 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 95% 2,287.37 shares