0xeE8aef5aDC04FFb8Cb3417233389473246BDf0b0-1773254929104

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $423.49
Potential payout: $14.86K
Potential profit: $14.44K
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: -$1.53

Yes position

Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $37.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.96K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $37.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.96K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $47.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.95K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.39K
Potential profit: $3.39K
User PnL: -$1.75K

Yes position

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $37.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.96K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $49
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.95K
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $17
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.98K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.18K
User PnL: -$27.14

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $50.44
Potential payout: $506.92
Potential profit: $456.48
Multiplier: 10.05x
User PnL: $2.57

Yes position

Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 15.6%
Current value: $65.96
Potential payout: $424.16
Potential profit: $358.2
Multiplier: 6.43x
User PnL: -$9.64

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $41.5
Potential payout: $251.51
Potential profit: $210.01
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $7.6

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $43.75
Potential payout: $249.99
Potential profit: $206.24
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $1.25

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $236.86
Potential profit: $235.91
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$0.24

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $211.08
Potential profit: $211.08
User PnL: -$80

Yes position

Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $25.2
Potential payout: $210.01
Potential profit: $184.81
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $90.3
Potential payout: $210
Potential profit: $119.7
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: -$10.5

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $55
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $145
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $83.25
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $66.75
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?

Implied probability: 89.2%
Current value: $89.2
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $10.8
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$0.82

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $51.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $48.5
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $42.3
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $47.7
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?

Implied probability: 86.3%
Current value: $72.76
Potential payout: $84.31
Potential profit: $11.55
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$2.95

Yes position

Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win <25 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.85
Potential profit: $56.85
User PnL: -$38.66

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Max Holloway position

UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $320

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $200

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.52

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.95

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.49

Yes position

Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.43

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.65

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?

Implied probability: 13%
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $15.43

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.72

Yes position

Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026?

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.95

Yes position

Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.31

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.89

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

Implied probability: 2.6%
Multiplier: 39.22x
User PnL: -$2.19

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.2

Yes position

Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$5.15

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$7.04

Yes position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9.77

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$10.55

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 11.8%
Multiplier: 8.47x
User PnL: -$12.79

Yes position

Crude Oil all time high by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$15.2

Yes position

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$23.52

No position

Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$24.48

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?