0xef0d...7e94

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $463.18
Potential payout: $523.37
Potential profit: $60.19
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $37.66

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $390.01
Potential payout: $503.24
Potential profit: $113.23
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$11.53

No position

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $318.3
Potential payout: $370.11
Potential profit: $51.82
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $16.81

No position

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Ends Aug 20, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $123.9
Potential payout: $339.46
Potential profit: $215.56
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$10.04

No position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $204.65
Potential payout: $286.23
Potential profit: $81.58
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: $22.87

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $284.73
Potential profit: $284.73
User PnL: -$196.03

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $260.61
Potential profit: $260.61
User PnL: -$67.09

No position

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $112.93
Potential payout: $248.2
Potential profit: $135.27
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $14.51

No position

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $134.33
Potential payout: $199.01
Potential profit: $64.68
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $3.9

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $148.54
Potential payout: $196.74
Potential profit: $48.2
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $12.4

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $104.61
Potential payout: $172.91
Potential profit: $68.3
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $18.92

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $86.12
Potential payout: $152.45
Potential profit: $66.33
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$6.75

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $124.96
Potential payout: $141.19
Potential profit: $16.24
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $4.71

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $102.62
Potential payout: $130.72
Potential profit: $28.1
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $15.06

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $88.56
Potential payout: $130.23
Potential profit: $41.67
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $6.54

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $128
Potential profit: $128
User PnL: -$10.24

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $84.17
Potential payout: $94.05
Potential profit: $9.87
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.41

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $87.31
Potential profit: $87.31
User PnL: -$52.15

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.77
Potential profit: $83.77
User PnL: -$53.64

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $57.6
Potential payout: $67.37
Potential profit: $9.77
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $3.25

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $48.39
Potential payout: $54.99
Potential profit: $6.6
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $3.46

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $36.48
Potential payout: $41.69
Potential profit: $5.21
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $6.92

No position

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $28.84
Potential payout: $30.39
Potential profit: $1.55
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $1.49

No position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $17.24
Potential payout: $19.7
Potential profit: $2.46
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.89

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.53

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.02

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.16

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.7

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.23

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.71

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.31

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.3

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.16

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.36

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.4

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.93

No position

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.39

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.37

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.35

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.92

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.1

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.3

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.21

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?