Polymarket Trader

Utp

0xef1dfe0b17c80c407431f9ff2870347a2f1b028e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $90.91
Realized PnL: -$2.53
Win rate: 54.5%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 11
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 13, 2026?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.93
Potential payout: $109.99
Potential profit: $109.06
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$2.03

Yes position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 54%
Current value: $40.5
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $34.5
Multiplier: 1.85x
User PnL: $27.06

Yes position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $6.6
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $33.4
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $1.94
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $28.07
Multiplier: 15.50x
User PnL: -$0.46

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $28.57
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $16.31
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-07-11?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.62
Potential profit: $21.62
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $1.49
Potential payout: $20.27
Potential profit: $18.78
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$1.51

Yes position

Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $8.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $11.3
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 37%
Current value: $3.96
Potential payout: $10.71
Potential profit: $6.75
Multiplier: 2.70x
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 57%
Current value: $5.82
Potential payout: $10.22
Potential profit: $4.4
Multiplier: 1.76x
User PnL: $0.82

Yes position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.95
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$4.45

Yes position

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 10?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.98
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$1.38

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $3.75
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $6.25
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 6.9%
Current value: $0.69
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.31
Multiplier: 14.49x
User PnL: -$0.41

Yes position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $8.18
Potential payout: $9.68
Potential profit: $1.5
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $5.18

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.07
Potential profit: $8.07
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $0.78
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.23
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $0.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.12

Yes position

Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.69

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.56

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.23

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Down 31% 3.23 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Down 80% 1.25 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Down 47% 2.13 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Down 68% 1.47 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

Down 32% 3.13 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

Up 81% 1.23 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

Down 77% 1.3 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

Down 79% 1.27 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

Down 78% 1.28 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

Up 26% 3.85 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

Down 9% 11.11 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

Up 90% 5.56 shares