trader-ef1f437c

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $84.85
Potential payout: $85.15
Potential profit: $0.3
User PnL: $5.3

No position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 66.1%
Current value: $49.45
Potential payout: $74.86
Potential profit: $25.42
Multiplier: 1.51x
User PnL: -$7.04

No position

Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $71.8
Potential payout: $72.27
Potential profit: $0.47
User PnL: $0.42

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $61.37
Potential payout: $61.84
Potential profit: $0.46
User PnL: $7.02

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.24
Potential payout: $54.21
Potential profit: $53.97
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.97

No position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 82.2%
Current value: $40.7
Potential payout: $49.51
Potential profit: $8.81
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $4.16

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $39.29
Potential payout: $39.48
Potential profit: $0.2
User PnL: $0.61

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.3%
Current value: $7.17
Potential payout: $35.4
Potential profit: $28.23
Multiplier: 4.94x
User PnL: -$10.53

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 79.8%
Current value: $28.23
Potential payout: $35.4
Potential profit: $7.17
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $10.53

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.8%
Current value: $6.68
Potential payout: $33.8
Potential profit: $27.13
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $31.8
Potential payout: $33.3
Potential profit: $1.5
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $6.6

No position

Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $30.93
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $0.33
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.59

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $24
Potential payout: $26.23
Potential profit: $2.23
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $4.22

No position

Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $25.69
Potential payout: $25.82
Potential profit: $0.13
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $24.4
Potential payout: $24.5
Potential profit: $0.1
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $22.4
Potential payout: $24.35
Potential profit: $1.95
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.3

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $24.09
Potential payout: $24.22
Potential profit: $0.13
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 63.3%
Current value: $15.12
Potential payout: $23.87
Potential profit: $8.75
Multiplier: 1.58x
User PnL: $0.41

No position

Will Solana reach $90 in June?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $21.62
Potential payout: $21.79
Potential profit: $0.17
User PnL: $1.14

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $20
Potential payout: $20.58
Potential profit: $0.58
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $2.95

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $20.4
Potential payout: $20.5
Potential profit: $0.1
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $18.37
Potential profit: $18.14
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$1.08

No position

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

Implied probability: 91.3%
Current value: $15.88
Potential payout: $17.39
Potential profit: $1.51
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $2.34

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.75

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.06

Team Falcons position

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.7

Under position

New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.9

Seattle Mariners position

Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.29

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.95

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.35

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.79

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.04

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.49

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.43

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.2

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.12

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.06

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.64

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.6

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.28

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.16

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.09

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.72

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.42

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET