No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $220.31
- Potential payout
- $312.5
- Potential profit
- $92.19
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $20.31
Polymarket Trader
ayles1
0xef262802721499561246532bac3c607511e7e6cf
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $739.79
- Realized PnL
- $120.29
- Win rate
- 62.5%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $193.51
- Potential payout
- $259.74
- Potential profit
- $66.23
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- -$6.49
No position
Will France win on 2026-06-26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $161.29
- Potential profit
- $161.29
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 56%
- Current value
- $87.02
- Potential payout
- $155.38
- Potential profit
- $68.37
- Multiplier
- 1.79x
- User PnL
- -$12.98
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $8.43
- Potential payout
- $149.25
- Potential profit
- $140.82
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- -$1.57
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $110.71
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $32.14
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $10.71
No position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $47.97
- Potential payout
- $135.14
- Potential profit
- $87.16
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$2.03
No position
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $71.83
- Potential payout
- $84.51
- Potential profit
- $12.68
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $11.83
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.81
Snigur position
Transylvania Open: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Daria Snigur
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.22
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.32
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.28
Yes position
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.6
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.58
No position
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.96
Yes position
Bitcoin above $112K on August 22?
Ends Aug 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.96
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.53
No position
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.49
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.44
No position
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.37
No position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 99%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.98
No position
Bitcoin above $110K on August 22?
Ends Aug 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on September 1?
Ends Sep 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.28
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$13.56
Bencic position
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Belinda Bencic vs Sonay Kartal
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- -$22.87
Team Falcons position
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage
Ends Feb 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$95
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will France win on 2026-06-26?No 31% 161.29 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 70% 142.86 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 64.4% 155.38 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?No 77% 259.74 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No 64% 312.5 shares
- Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?No 37% 135.14 shares
- Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 6.7% 149.25 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?Yes 63% 79.37 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 86% 116.28 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No 99.4% 116 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?No 57.1% 262.81 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No 86% 116.28 shares