No position
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $41.57
- Potential payout
- $41.59
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $1.57
Polymarket Trader
frostyhopper
0xef4a9530c9db0c24344a3474d2f2cecbe7e45eeb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $321.44
- Realized PnL
- $515.1
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $39.52
- Potential payout
- $41.47
- Potential profit
- $1.95
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.02
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $28.05
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $1.95
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $2.85
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $25.35
- Potential payout
- $26.28
- Potential profit
- $0.93
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.35
No position
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $23.74
- Potential payout
- $25.81
- Potential profit
- $2.06
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.26
No position
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $15.65
- Potential payout
- $17.58
- Potential profit
- $1.93
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $17.38
- Potential payout
- $17.39
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $9.38
Yes position
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.76
- Potential profit
- $9.76
- User PnL
- -$8
Yes position
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05?
Ends Aug 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $9.19
- Potential payout
- $9.41
- Potential profit
- $0.23
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.19
No position
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $8.18
- Potential payout
- $8.94
- Potential profit
- $0.76
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.8%
- Current value
- $7.99
- Potential payout
- $8.71
- Potential profit
- $0.72
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $8.13
- Potential payout
- $8.7
- Potential profit
- $0.57
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $8.3
- Potential payout
- $8.69
- Potential profit
- $0.39
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $8.15
- Potential payout
- $8.6
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92.7%
- Current value
- $7.97
- Potential payout
- $8.6
- Potential profit
- $0.63
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $7.92
- Potential payout
- $8.52
- Potential profit
- $0.6
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $8.13
- Potential payout
- $8.51
- Potential profit
- $0.38
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $8
- Potential payout
- $8.51
- Potential profit
- $0.51
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Current value
- $7.98
- Potential payout
- $8.21
- Potential profit
- $0.23
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $8.14
- Potential payout
- $8.19
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- User PnL
- $0.14
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $8.04
- Potential payout
- $8.17
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $8.05
- Potential payout
- $8.11
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Trump out as President by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $8.03
- Potential payout
- $8.1
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $8
- Potential payout
- $8.09
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- -$0
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.94
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.78
Steve Erceg position
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.97
Yes position
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-11?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.15
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.87
Nuggets position
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.69
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.43
Yaroslav Amosov position
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27
No position
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.07
New York Yankees position
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.46
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.11
Charles Jourdain position
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Main Card)
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.34
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.39
King Green position
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.3
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.9
Mike Malott position
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card)
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.43
Yes position
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.55
Gokhan Saricam position
UFC Fight Night: Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam (Heavyweight, Main Card)
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.07
Ketlen Vieira position
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.6
Alana Subasic position
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Irem Kurt
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.85
Wes Schultz position
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims)
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.78
Yes position
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.71
Gauge Young position
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims)
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.68
Édgar Cháirez position
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.02
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?No 46% 17.39 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 2?No 99.7% 8.02 shares
- Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 91.9% 8.71 shares
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Yes 99.5% 8.04 shares
- Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?No 99% 8.08 shares
- Will Austin Reaves play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?Yes 99.2% 8.06 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 99.3% 8.06 shares
- Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 98.9% 8.09 shares
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Yes 99.2% 8.06 shares
- Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?No 99% 8.08 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 97.4% 8.21 shares
- Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?No 99.1% 8.07 shares