Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.84K
- Potential profit
- $41.84K
- User PnL
- -$2.2K
Polymarket Trader
MelonTusk
0xefc60fe9c11281c9fde3e93b3ef05e9f1fddc974
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.67K
- Realized PnL
- $22.71K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.29K
- Potential profit
- $33.29K
- User PnL
- -$4.5K
Yes position
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.74K
- Potential profit
- $16.74K
- User PnL
- -$199.98
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.79K
- Potential profit
- $3.79K
- User PnL
- -$2.5K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $3.08K
- Potential payout
- $3.52K
- Potential profit
- $440.62
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.58K
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.52K
- Potential profit
- $1.52K
- User PnL
- -$500
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $1.31K
- Potential payout
- $1.52K
- Potential profit
- $204.55
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $310.61
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $596.17
- Potential payout
- $1.26K
- Potential profit
- $658.92
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$213.83
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $675.37
- Potential payout
- $746.27
- Potential profit
- $70.9
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $175.37
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $735.53
- Potential profit
- $735.53
- User PnL
- -$200
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $609.76
- Potential profit
- $609.76
- User PnL
- -$500
Yes position
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $456.35
- Potential profit
- $456.35
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $412.34
- Potential profit
- $412.34
- User PnL
- -$200
No position
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $169.5
- Potential profit
- $169.5
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Federal employee charged as a result of DOGE investigation?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $110.09
- Potential profit
- $110.09
- User PnL
- -$75
Yes position
Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off?
Ends Feb 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.95
- Potential profit
- $83.95
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.55
- Potential profit
- $42.55
- User PnL
- -$20
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Biden drops out of presidential race?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.94K
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.96K
Yes position
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9K
No position
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.76K
Yes position
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.49K
Yes position
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.64K
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first week?
Ends Jan 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45K
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $235.94
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $217.42
Yes position
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?
Ends Jul 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.87
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
Ends Aug 22, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $114.9
Yes position
Super Bowl: Taylor Swift shown more than 5 times?
Ends Feb 11, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.56
Yes position
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.39
Yes position
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.62
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $64.51
Yes position
Biden drops out by July 4?
Ends Jul 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $62.87
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.8
No position
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII?
Ends Feb 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.84
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.52
Yes position
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $52.02
Yes position
New Pope in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50
No position
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.07
Yes position
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $23.57
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 64.5% 1,255.09 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 36.9% 2,197.59 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 40% 2,197.6 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 66% 1,515.15 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No 99.2% 463.25 shares
- Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Yes 38.1% 1,422.79 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No 87% 463.25 shares
- Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Yes 37% 945.95 shares
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes 89% 561.8 shares
- Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Yes 53% 188.68 shares
- Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Yes 52.1% 288.17 shares
- Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation?Yes 55% 181.82 shares