0xeFdD27E62B43640b866A0c2503Afe65687bAa7F9-1755874835308

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $13.54
Potential payout: $200.57
Potential profit: $187.03
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 12.4%
Current value: $19.13
Potential payout: $154.9
Potential profit: $135.77
Multiplier: 8.10x
User PnL: -$0.23

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $17.84
Potential payout: $41
Potential profit: $23.17
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$5.51

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $1.46
Potential payout: $29
Potential profit: $27.54
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: -$0.51

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.27
Potential profit: $27.27
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 20?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.47
Potential profit: $22.47
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.22
Potential profit: $22.22
User PnL: -$21.69

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 3?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.86
Potential profit: $20.86
User PnL: -$20

No position

USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$15.06

100k position

Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$11

No position

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.23
Potential profit: $19.23
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.8%
Current value: $3.69
Potential payout: $18.7
Potential profit: $15.01
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?

Ends Oct 6, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.86
Potential profit: $17.86
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17
Potential profit: $17
User PnL: -$12.02

No position

Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 66%
Current value: $10.3
Potential payout: $15.6
Potential profit: $5.3
Multiplier: 1.52x
User PnL: -$2.81

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.51
Potential profit: $13.51
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.68
Potential profit: $11.68
User PnL: -$6.89

No position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $7.69
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.52
Potential profit: $6.52
User PnL: -$6

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19.8%
Current value: $1.19
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $4.81
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: -$2.43

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 3?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.57
Potential profit: $3.57
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 7?

Ends Nov 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.16
Potential profit: $3.16
User PnL: -$3

No position

Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.9
Potential profit: $2.9
User PnL: -$2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 6?

Ends Oct 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.9

No position

EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.05

No position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.71

Yes position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.36

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $5.08

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.2

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.4

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.17

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

No position

Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.99

No position

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.93

No position

EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.74

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.48

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.24

No position

Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.23

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.22

No position

Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.14

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.07

No position

Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.72

No position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.67

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.62

No position

Epstein client list released in 2025?