Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Polymarket Trader
0xefE56C5AAD177D69071067B79bf0C75B7f4258Bc-1775534371375
0xefe56c5aad177d69071067b79bf0c75b7f4258bc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $112.91
- Realized PnL
- $623.39
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.15K
- Potential profit
- $2.15K
- User PnL
- -$80.75
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.08K
- Potential profit
- $2.08K
- User PnL
- -$547.31
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $852.23
- Potential profit
- $852.23
- User PnL
- -$1.71
Yes position
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?
Ends Nov 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.2%
- Current value
- $11.74
- Potential payout
- $89.25
- Potential profit
- $77.52
- Multiplier
- 7.60x
- User PnL
- $3.92
Yes position
Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Ends Nov 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $24.6
- Potential payout
- $71.32
- Potential profit
- $46.72
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- $3.47
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.86
- Potential profit
- $50.86
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.86
- Potential profit
- $50.86
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.86
- Potential profit
- $50.86
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.86
- Potential profit
- $50.86
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will ByteDance have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.86
- Potential profit
- $50.86
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will Mistral have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.86
- Potential profit
- $50.86
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will Amazon have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.86
- Potential profit
- $50.86
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.86
- Potential profit
- $50.86
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will Meituan have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.86
- Potential profit
- $50.86
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.86
- Potential profit
- $50.86
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will Xiaomi have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.86
- Potential profit
- $50.86
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?
Ends Nov 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $7.38
- Potential payout
- $49.17
- Potential profit
- $41.8
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$7.35
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$22.8
Yes position
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $28.74
- Potential payout
- $35.26
- Potential profit
- $6.53
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $3.12
Yes position
Will Te Pāti Māori be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
Ends Nov 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 63%
- Current value
- $18.9
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $11.1
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- $5.1
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$15.2
Yes position
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Ends Nov 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $11.31
- Potential payout
- $19
- Potential profit
- $7.7
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $3.73
Yes position
Will Green Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
Ends Nov 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 55%
- Current value
- $10.26
- Potential payout
- $18.66
- Potential profit
- $8.4
- Multiplier
- 1.82x
- User PnL
- $1.92
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.44
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.53
Yes position
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.02
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.92
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.55
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.64
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.19
Yes position
Kylie Jenner confirmed pregnant in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- $30.35
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.96
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.49
Yes position
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.13
No position
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.55
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.06
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.97
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.15
No position
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.05
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $4.31
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.72
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.7
No position
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.99
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.96
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.87
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.74
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?Yes 19% 7 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 80% 7.78 shares
- Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Yes 37% 14 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 96.6% 11.95 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 81% 4.72 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?Yes 1% 23.04 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 90% 3.98 shares
- Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?Yes 28% 4.96 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?No 99.8% 1.42 shares
- Will National Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?No 60% 2.75 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ETDown 97% 3.09 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Yes 0.4% 587.96 shares