Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.11K
- Potential profit
- $2.11K
- User PnL
- -$369.85
Polymarket Trader
say
0xf031f49be6d5b2afce3ae280960b2fa7755fe251
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.42K
- Realized PnL
- $170.77
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 2
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.2%
- Current value
- $954.53
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $221
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $535.27
No position
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $929.85
- Potential profit
- $929.85
- User PnL
- -$350
Yes position
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?
Ends Jul 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $750
- Potential profit
- $750
- User PnL
- -$217.5
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $723.51
- Potential payout
- $723.51
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $213.25
No position
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $558.99
- Potential profit
- $558.99
- User PnL
- -$285.44
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $156.13
- Potential payout
- $511.91
- Potential profit
- $355.78
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$18.87
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$208
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $374
- Potential payout
- $374
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $123.42
Yes position
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $74.25
- Potential payout
- $270
- Potential profit
- $195.75
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$76.95
Yes position
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?
Ends Jul 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $266.77
- Potential profit
- $266.77
- User PnL
- -$25.01
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$134
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $142.06
- Potential payout
- $176.47
- Potential profit
- $34.41
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$7.94
No position
US strikes Yemen by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $48.19
- Potential profit
- $48.19
- User PnL
- -$40
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $181.71
Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$10.94
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 67% 30.44 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?No 52% 400 shares
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 34.8% 379.87 shares
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes 41% 156.25 shares
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?Yes 88% 303.95 shares
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?Yes 75% 92.63 shares
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?Yes 71% 75.23 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?No 44% 191.75 shares
- Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes 34.2% 511.91 shares
- Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?Yes 56% 270 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?No 55% 26 shares
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes 48% 156.25 shares