No position
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $140.72
- Potential payout
- $148.99
- Potential profit
- $8.27
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $55.65
Polymarket Trader
0xf040...d11f
0xf040b3611787aaf4c8729210c8696731f990d11f
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $2.69K
- Realized PnL
- $1.04K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
Ends Jan 16, 2027- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $89.93
- Potential payout
- $143.88
- Potential profit
- $53.96
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$10.79
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $123.41
- Potential payout
- $142.67
- Potential profit
- $19.26
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $23.67
No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $119.26
- Potential payout
- $141.14
- Potential profit
- $21.88
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.6
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $129.73
- Potential payout
- $137.28
- Potential profit
- $7.55
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $19.73
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $108.29
- Potential payout
- $134.61
- Potential profit
- $26.32
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $11.72
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $117.76
- Potential payout
- $131.57
- Potential profit
- $13.81
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $6.78
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $117.82
- Potential payout
- $130.18
- Potential profit
- $12.37
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $20.36
No position
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $102.47
- Potential payout
- $128.89
- Potential profit
- $26.42
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$2.55
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $117.61
- Potential payout
- $128.54
- Potential profit
- $10.93
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $6.85
No position
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $111.57
- Potential payout
- $127.51
- Potential profit
- $15.94
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $9.45
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $111.52
- Potential payout
- $127.45
- Potential profit
- $15.93
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $6.41
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $110.18
- Potential payout
- $127.38
- Potential profit
- $17.2
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $9.55
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $112.63
- Potential payout
- $127.27
- Potential profit
- $14.64
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$1.46
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $109.37
- Potential payout
- $124.99
- Potential profit
- $15.62
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $24.47
Yes position
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $119.23
- Potential payout
- $124.26
- Potential profit
- $5.03
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $13.61
No position
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $112.81
- Potential payout
- $120.65
- Potential profit
- $7.84
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $2.09
No position
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $109.69
- Potential payout
- $118.58
- Potential profit
- $8.89
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $4.09
Yes position
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
Ends Aug 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $97.04
- Potential payout
- $118.34
- Potential profit
- $21.3
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- -$3.55
No position
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $108.32
- Potential payout
- $117.74
- Potential profit
- $9.42
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $2.77
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $101.4
- Potential payout
- $117.22
- Potential profit
- $15.82
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.83
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $109.42
- Potential payout
- $116.47
- Potential profit
- $7.05
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $4.37
Yes position
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
Ends Jul 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $105
- Potential payout
- $116.02
- Potential profit
- $11.02
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.58
No position
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $105
- Potential payout
- $114.75
- Potential profit
- $9.75
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.57
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Kings position
Kings vs. Raptors
Ends Apr 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.63
FUT Esports position
Valorant: Fnatic vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.92
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.14
Up position
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.31
Team Liquid position
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.8
Passion UA position
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FaZe (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.66
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.04
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
Ends Jan 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.84
Mavericks position
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers
Ends Mar 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.49
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
Ends Jan 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.17
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.32
Trail Blazers position
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.71
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.7
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.94
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Jan 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.93
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.89
Atlanta Braves position
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
Ends Mar 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.79
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.46
No position
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.94
Arizona Diamondbacks position
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.5
HyperSpirit position
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner
Ends Mar 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.45
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.14
Yes position
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.62
Arizona Diamondbacks position
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.98
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?No 95% 21.17 shares
- Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?Yes 91% 116.02 shares
- Trump out as President before 2027?No 92% 5.46 shares
- Will MUNDO-GB win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?No 99.7% 28.08 shares
- Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No 99.2% 22.98 shares
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes 80% 10.5 shares
- OPEC dissolves in 2026?No 94% 5.34 shares
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No 88% 5.71 shares
- Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?No 94% 5.34 shares
- Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?No 94% 5.34 shares
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No 83% 24.24 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No 91% 5.52 shares