No position
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47%
- Current value
- $1.33K
- Potential payout
- $2.83K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- $84.84
Polymarket Trader
Aleksei-Ivanovich
0xf0eec63e9e05cdd98d23e9cd021a749e4fcc4b33
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $14.16K
- Realized PnL
- $4.41K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $887.5
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.61K
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$673.98
No position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.1K
- Potential profit
- $2.1K
- User PnL
- -$1.64K
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $1.54K
- Potential payout
- $1.8K
- Potential profit
- $261.68
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $65.29
No position
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $1.44K
- Potential payout
- $1.65K
- Potential profit
- $214.5
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $122.5
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $1.28K
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $119
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $83
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.13K
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $118.75
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $99.75
No position
Trump declares election interference national emergency?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $986.64
- Potential payout
- $1.08K
- Potential profit
- $97.58
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $209.42
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$664
No position
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $815.81
- Potential payout
- $824.47
- Potential profit
- $8.66
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $80.57
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $579.56
- Potential payout
- $719.95
- Potential profit
- $140.39
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $144.29
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.1%
- Current value
- $178.54
- Potential payout
- $685.37
- Potential profit
- $506.83
- Multiplier
- 3.84x
- User PnL
- -$391.42
Yes position
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $587.99
- Potential payout
- $602.14
- Potential profit
- $14.15
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$1.24
No position
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $459.41
- Potential payout
- $553.5
- Potential profit
- $94.1
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $27.67
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $497.75
- Potential payout
- $550
- Potential profit
- $52.25
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $127.25
No position
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $540.41
- Potential payout
- $547.25
- Potential profit
- $6.84
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $69.77
No position
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $394.99
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $105
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $80
No position
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $465.67
- Potential payout
- $473
- Potential profit
- $7.33
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $6.86
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $346
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $54
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $30
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$290
Yes position
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $65.4
- Potential payout
- $353.54
- Potential profit
- $288.14
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$109.79
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $336.82
- Potential payout
- $336.99
- Potential profit
- $0.17
- User PnL
- $10.95
No position
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $302.18
- Potential payout
- $306
- Potential profit
- $3.82
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $16.06
Yes position
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$197.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $547.02
No position
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $389.26
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $309.81
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $280.06
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $258.44
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.36
Yes position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $230.31
Yes position
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $215.61
Yes position
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $190.19
Yes position
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.84
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150.1
No position
Will the SBC initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $143.78
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.84
Yes position
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.59
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.09
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.9
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119.7
Yes position
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.66
Yes position
Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.64
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.75
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.27
No position
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.87
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.01
Yes position
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.97
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?No 97% 473 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 99.9% 361.1 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 84% 10 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 90.7% 34.35 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 90.6% 10 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 90.7% 20 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 68% 5 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 68% 66.11 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?No 18% 646.1 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No 64.6% 166.3 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No 8% 1,194.94 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No 74% 77.25 shares