Polymarket Trader

heavyrain

0xf0ef475594061e88ef0806dda3356c7711abebca

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $190.84
Realized PnL: $391.77
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.8%
Current value: $67.84
Potential payout: $81
Potential profit: $13.16
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $30.13

No position

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 85.1%
Current value: $61.47
Potential payout: $72.28
Potential profit: $10.81
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $10.85

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $50.1
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $9.9
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $11.1

Yes position

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 31.8%
Current value: $7.94
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $17.06
Multiplier: 3.15x
User PnL: $0.86

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 10.7%
Current value: $2.66
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $22.34
Multiplier: 9.39x
User PnL: $0.36

Team Liquid position

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$9.9

No position

Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13
Potential profit: $13
User PnL: -$4.03

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $11
Potential profit: $10.18
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.27

Natus Vincere position

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$6.4

Xtreme Gaming position

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$4.8

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Vitality position

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.61

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.51

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.03

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.65

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Ends Mar 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.65

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.38

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.19

Over position

Games Total: O/U 2.5

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.8

No position

Steve Bannon exonerated by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.58

No position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.53

FURIA position

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner

Ends Feb 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.09

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.32

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.37

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.88

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.49

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.43

No position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.06

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12

Yes position

Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.8

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.8

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.58

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.33

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

No 70.3% 25 shares
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

No 69.9% 47.28 shares
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23?

No 91.3% 20 shares
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23?

Yes 69.7% 10 shares
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland

Sri Lanka 90% 20 shares
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland

Sri Lanka 69% 20 shares
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23?

No 65% 10 shares
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23?

No 61.7% 10 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

No 90% 35 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 95% 45 shares
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner

Team Falcons 52% 10 shares
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs

Natus Vincere 64% 10 shares