uniloktij

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $9.13
Potential payout: $172.24
Potential profit: $163.11
Multiplier: 18.87x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $4.51
Potential payout: $101.35
Potential profit: $96.84
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$0.57

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $94.44
Potential profit: $93.59
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$7.15

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.57
Potential payout: $94.33
Potential profit: $93.76
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$4.43

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.39
Potential payout: $85.71
Potential profit: $85.32
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$2.61

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $83.34
Potential profit: $83.09
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$1.42

Yes position

Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $4.72
Potential payout: $82.09
Potential profit: $77.37
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Ends Jan 29, 2027

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $6.87
Potential payout: $80.81
Potential profit: $73.94
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.13

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $80.63
Potential profit: $79.78
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$1.65

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $1.84
Potential payout: $78.13
Potential profit: $76.29
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$3.16

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $3.16
Potential payout: $78.05
Potential profit: $74.89
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.51
Potential payout: $68.18
Potential profit: $67.67
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$2.49

Yes position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $3.64
Potential payout: $62.21
Potential profit: $58.57
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: $0.88

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $3.89
Potential payout: $55.55
Potential profit: $51.66
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$1.11

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $6.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $43.75
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $1.25

Yes position

Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $48.12
Potential profit: $47.09
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$1.52

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $3.54
Potential payout: $41.66
Potential profit: $38.12
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.46

No position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $5.89
Potential payout: $39.29
Potential profit: $33.39
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $2.85
Potential payout: $35.66
Potential profit: $32.81
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$2.9

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $1.1
Potential payout: $32.35
Potential profit: $31.25
Multiplier: 29.41x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $3.81
Potential payout: $30.45
Potential profit: $26.64
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $4.05
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $25.95
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.45

No position

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 52%
Current value: $15.29
Potential payout: $29.4
Potential profit: $14.11
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: $10.29

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $3.57
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $25
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.43

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.5

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.91

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.46

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.5

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.98

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.32

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.81

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.16

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $1.72

Yes position

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: $1.67

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.57

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.8%
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: $1.48

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 5%
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: $0.91

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?

Implied probability: 7.7%
Multiplier: 12.99x
User PnL: $0.87

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.86

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.75

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.61

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.2%
Multiplier: 19.23x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Multiplier: 15.50x
User PnL: $0.46

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: $0.46

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 3%
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: $0.41

Yes position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0.33

Yes position

Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?