No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $1.97K
- Potential payout
- $2.15K
- Potential profit
- $182.8
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$32.26
Polymarket Trader
jim11
0xf1628c187a0a0d5d042c316946735ec731b8b6b5
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $5.48K
- Realized PnL
- $3.52K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $1.39K
- User PnL
- -$420
No position
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.03K
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $31.99
Yes position
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $950.14
- Potential profit
- $950.14
- User PnL
- -$360
No position
Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $697.84
- Potential payout
- $697.84
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $47.84
Yes position
X and Truth Social merger announced before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $681.82
- Potential profit
- $681.82
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $673.95
- Potential profit
- $673.95
- User PnL
- -$150
No position
Anthropic acquired in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $539.02
- Potential payout
- $539.02
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $39.02
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $515.83
- Potential profit
- $515.83
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $509.78
- Potential profit
- $509.78
- User PnL
- -$290
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $382.21
- Potential profit
- $382.21
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will any AI score ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2 by November 3?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $375.63
- Potential profit
- $375.63
- User PnL
- -$120
No position
Will the next UK election be called by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $336.78
- Potential payout
- $336.78
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $36.78
Yes position
Will DeepSeek be #1 model before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $250
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $150
Yes position
OpenAI social app in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $235.29
- Potential payout
- $235.29
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $155.29
No position
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $217.39
- Potential profit
- $217.39
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
OpenAI acquired in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $187.29
- Potential payout
- $187.29
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $17.29
Yes position
Will 16-18 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $154.62
- Potential profit
- $154.62
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $133.33
- Potential profit
- $133.33
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $129.55
- Potential profit
- $129.55
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Harry & Meghan divorce in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $119.05
- Potential payout
- $119.05
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $19.05
No position
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $112.36
- Potential payout
- $112.36
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $12.36
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04K
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $487.27
Yes position
Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
Ends Aug 22, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $267.6
Yes position
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.23
Yes position
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $145.61
No position
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $145.48
Yes position
Election certified on January 6?
Ends Jan 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $143.48
No position
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $130.75
Yes position
Will a Republican win Alaska Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.65
Yes position
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
Ends Dec 8, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.65
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.15
Yes position
Will Trump pick Kash Patel for Director of the FBI?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.57
Yes position
Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate?
Ends Aug 15, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.56
Yes position
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.61
Yes position
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.94
No position
Will Biden's 538 approval reach 40% in July?
Ends Jul 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.77
No position
UK election called before 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.63
No position
Biden resigns from presidency by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.87
No position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.1
Yes position
OpenAI Sora public release in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.84
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.52
No position
DeepSeek banned in US before April?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.51
No position
Will Ukraine join NATO before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.49
No position
France train attack claimed by terror org?
Ends Aug 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.92
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No 47.2% 538.37 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?No 76% 350 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 93% 2,150.54 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?No 80% 250 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No 52% 538.37 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?No 80% 100 shares
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes 47% 212.77 shares
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025?Yes 18.3% 77 shares
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?Yes 10% 139.21 shares
- Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?No 93% 537.63 shares
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?Yes 19% 105.26 shares
- Israel military action against Iran in July?Yes 42% 95.21 shares