Polymarket Trader

0xF1645b8Af1E8D139162E951e77455ED27FC24f9b-1780787863226

0xf1645b8af1e8d139162e951e77455ed27fc24f9b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $129.75
Realized PnL: $0.56
Win rate: 31.3%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 16
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $57.3
Potential payout: $201.12
Potential profit: $143.82
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$15.87

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $42.44
Potential payout: $160.14
Potential profit: $117.7
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$0.49

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $6.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $13.7
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $3.15
Potential payout: $18
Potential profit: $14.85
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$0.45

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $17
Potential profit: $14.62
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $1.74
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $10.26
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.7%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $8.94
Multiplier: 9.39x
User PnL: -$0.33

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $1.43
Potential payout: $7
Potential profit: $5.57
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$0.25

No position

Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $2.58
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.43
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$0.77

No position

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $3.66
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $0.34
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 5?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $2.81
Potential payout: $3
Potential profit: $0.19
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $2.79
Potential payout: $3
Potential profit: $0.21
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $1.12
Potential payout: $2
Potential profit: $0.88
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $2
Potential profit: $1.01
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$0.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.35

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.44

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.3%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.08

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?

No 95% 3 shares
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 5?

No 95% 3 shares
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?

No 59% 2 shares
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?

No 93% 4 shares
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

No 67% 5 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?

Yes 52% 2 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?

No 16% 17 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

No 13.9% 10 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

Yes 24% 7 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

No 33% 20 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Yes 15% 12 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

Yes 30% 16 shares