No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $544.37
- Potential payout
- $577.27
- Potential profit
- $32.9
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $37.37
Polymarket Trader
flyhamburger
0xf2633e9041a2e74a1e6e09f882e99494c4009ef4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.94K
- Realized PnL
- $393.21
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $499.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $0.75
- User PnL
- $8.65
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $223.75
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $26.25
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $11.25
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $194.69
- Potential payout
- $219.99
- Potential profit
- $25.3
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $48.2
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$162
No position
Epstein client list released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $99.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.55
- User PnL
- $19.45
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $9
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $91
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $99.85
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- User PnL
- $2.75
No position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $85.47
- Potential payout
- $99.97
- Potential profit
- $14.5
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $22.49
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $8.08
- Potential payout
- $85
- Potential profit
- $76.93
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$6.38
Yes position
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $69.41
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $0.59
- User PnL
- $16.91
No position
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $57.69
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $2.31
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $7.89
No position
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Ends Nov 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $46.23
- Potential payout
- $49.98
- Potential profit
- $3.75
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $5.55
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: January
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.2
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 21?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $37.03
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 25?
Ends Dec 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.19
Yes position
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.25
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.6
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.7
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.2
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.1
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 21?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.69
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.5
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.8
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: December
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 22?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.4
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.2
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.55
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 11?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.5
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.8
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 85% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11?Yes 82.1% 15 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 11?No 95% 130 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 28?No 90% 9.95 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27?Yes 10% 10 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 25?No 97% 149.78 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No 85% 150 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 24?Yes 24% 0.91 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 24?Yes 21% 0.05 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 23?Yes 0.1% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 22?No 98% 99.9 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?Yes 22.8% 10 shares