0xf278A463B5666Fd953Bc1F57302095003F3AA69d-1773426959522

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.31K
Potential profit: $1.31K
User PnL: -$2.61

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $772.9
Potential profit: $772.9
User PnL: -$9.53

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $624.8
Potential profit: $624.8
User PnL: -$13.37

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $389.7
Potential profit: $389.7
User PnL: -$1.17

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $34.42
Potential payout: $340.8
Potential profit: $306.38
Multiplier: 9.90x
User PnL: $23.47

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $284
Potential profit: $284
User PnL: -$4.35

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $262.9
Potential profit: $262.9
User PnL: -$14.05

No position

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $4.55
Potential payout: $113.7
Potential profit: $109.15
Multiplier: 25.00x
User PnL: -$1.21

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 17.4%
Current value: $19.83
Potential payout: $113.7
Potential profit: $93.87
Multiplier: 5.73x
User PnL: $10.95

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $91.8
Potential profit: $91.8
User PnL: -$5.74

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $64.8
Potential profit: $64.8
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.8
Potential profit: $56.8
User PnL: -$2.1

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.8
Potential profit: $56.8
User PnL: -$2.1

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.8
Potential profit: $56.8
User PnL: -$0.51

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.3
Potential profit: $41.3
User PnL: -$2.7

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 26.7%
Current value: $8.65
Potential payout: $32.4
Potential profit: $23.75
Multiplier: 3.75x
User PnL: $5.09

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $2.53
Potential payout: $26.62
Potential profit: $24.09
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$5.72

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $23.33
Potential payout: $25.5
Potential profit: $2.17
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.76

Yes position

Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.05
Potential profit: $23.05
User PnL: -$11.25

Yes position

BitBoy convicted?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.5
Potential profit: $22.5
User PnL: -$1.49

Yes position

Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.9
Potential profit: $17.9
User PnL: -$0.61

Yes position

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 19?

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.91
Potential profit: $14.91
User PnL: -$3.64

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $10.19
Potential payout: $10.2
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $1.17

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.07

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Oscars Bingo

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.24

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $15.21

Yes position

Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.34

Yes position

Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.71

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: $1.55

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.62

Yes position

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $0.49

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.29

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 20%
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: $0.28

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.4%
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Solana dip to $80 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 59.5%
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will BC.Game make a roster move before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?

Implied probability: 36%
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.11

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.72

Yes position

Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$1.03

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?