Yes position
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35K
- Potential profit
- $35K
- User PnL
- -$912.51
Polymarket Trader
simpton
0xf27a9adeae472b4a36071fb2e130fec3736b7b4d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $9.34K
- Realized PnL
- $6.42K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.8K
- Potential profit
- $17.8K
- User PnL
- -$554.08
Yes position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.76K
- Potential profit
- $10.76K
- User PnL
- -$620
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.93K
- Potential profit
- $3.93K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $134.66
- Potential payout
- $3.41K
- Potential profit
- $3.27K
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- -$15.34
Yes position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.53K
- Potential profit
- $2.53K
- User PnL
- -$184.04
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$1.53K
Yes position
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 82.1%
- Current value
- $1.5K
- Potential payout
- $1.83K
- Potential profit
- $328.97
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $3.74
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $1.5K
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $104
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $120
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.1%
- Current value
- $1.38K
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $118.5
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$24
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $105
- Potential payout
- $1.43K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- -$45
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.7%
- Current value
- $1.22K
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $81.9
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $1.28K
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $19.5
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $292.5
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $1.05K
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $123.53
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $252.94
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $930.49
- Potential profit
- $930.49
- User PnL
- -$84.4
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.9%
- Current value
- $463.72
- Potential payout
- $762.08
- Potential profit
- $298.35
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- $163.72
Yes position
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $757.5
- Potential profit
- $757.5
- User PnL
- -$300
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $598.5
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $101.5
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $24.5
Yes position
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $8.31
- Potential payout
- $692.19
- Potential profit
- $683.88
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- -$71.69
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 2?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $550
- Potential profit
- $550
- User PnL
- -$61.16
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $96
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $304
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$67
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 4?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $249.99
- Potential profit
- $249.99
- User PnL
- -$108
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $212.42
- Potential profit
- $212.42
- User PnL
- -$83.73
Yes position
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200.01
- Potential profit
- $200.01
- User PnL
- -$2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.47K
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $418
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $350.01
Yes position
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $313.14
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $296.63
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $251.8
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $230
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $229
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $200.15
No position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $186.14
No position
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $182.5
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $177
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168.46
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $158
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $153.6
Yes position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $125
No position
Kash Patel out by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.11
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.49
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.8
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56
No position
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 4.4% 3,409.09 shares
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 10.5% 1,428.57 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No 30% 1,100 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No 42.7% 1,100 shares
- Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?Yes 96% 225.63 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No 66.2% 669.98 shares
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No 68% 1,176.47 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ETUp 75% 13.33 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ETUp 77% 12.99 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ETUp 90% 11.11 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ETDown 10% 60.37 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ETDown 50% 20 shares