ToadToad

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $1.7K
Potential payout: $2.68K
Potential profit: $976.92
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$144.58

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$1.55K

No position

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.06K
Potential profit: $2.06K
User PnL: -$9.89

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $1.56K
Potential payout: $1.57K
Potential profit: $13.36
User PnL: $600.03

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $909.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $90.5
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $9.95

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $607.14
Potential profit: $606.84
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.7

Yes position

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $604.36
Potential profit: $604.36
User PnL: -$90.58

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $122.34
Potential payout: $569.03
Potential profit: $446.69
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$126.57

No position

Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $480
Potential profit: $480
User PnL: -$1.92

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $47.85
Potential payout: $290
Potential profit: $242.15
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $27.55

No position

Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $240
Potential profit: $240
User PnL: -$0.96

No position

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 5?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $154.17
Potential profit: $154.17
User PnL: -$6.37

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $139.09
Potential payout: $139.16
Potential profit: $0.07
User PnL: $0.07

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $104.29
Potential profit: $104.29
User PnL: -$7.3

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $96.23
Potential profit: $96.23
User PnL: -$3.54

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $5.13
Potential payout: $92.36
Potential profit: $87.24
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: $3.09

Yes position

Starmer out by October 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $70.93
Potential payout: $72.57
Potential profit: $1.63
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $70.78
Potential payout: $72.52
Potential profit: $1.74
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.29

No position

Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $17.09
Potential payout: $51.79
Potential profit: $34.7
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: $7.25

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $1.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $48.25
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.75
Potential profit: $31.75
User PnL: -$20

Over position

Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.61
Potential profit: $19.61
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $1.44K

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $995.27

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Multiplier: 29.41x
User PnL: $585.07

No position

GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $476.16

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $472.3

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $452.81

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $452.24

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $433.92

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $419.59

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $392.65

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $295.51

Yes position

Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 26?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $216.5

No position

Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.68

No position

Starmer out by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.59

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.93

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.32

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $82.3

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $48.33

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.14

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 96.1%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $40.92

Down position

EWY (EWY) Up or Down on April 21?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.11

No position

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38

No position

Starmer out by March 31, 2026?