OpenAI position
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $88.29
- Potential payout
- $490.48
- Potential profit
- $402.19
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$11.71
Polymarket Trader
0xF356AC3f3A477D287882FA96Ba0D43FBC8132d35-1724188986104
0xf356ac3f3a477d287882fa96ba0d43fbc8132d35
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $386.82
- Realized PnL
- $253.42
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $225.41
- Potential payout
- $294.65
- Potential profit
- $69.24
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $25.41
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $160
- Potential profit
- $160
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $133.33
- Potential profit
- $133.33
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $73.13
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $51.88
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- -$20.63
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $115.97
- Potential profit
- $115.97
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $94.86
- Potential profit
- $94.86
- User PnL
- -$20
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $174.59
No position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.71
No position
Will there be another debate?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.63
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $12.82
Yes position
Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.03
No position
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.82
No position
Iran military response before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.78
Yes position
GPT-5 not announced in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.32
No position
Will $BTC reach 70k before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.72
Yes position
Will FPÖ win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?
Ends Sep 29, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58
Kamala position
Who is asked the first debate question?
Ends Sep 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.14
No position
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6?
Ends Sep 6, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03
No position
Will ÖVP win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?
Ends Sep 29, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.84
No position
Bitcoin new all time high in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.73
No position
Iran strike on US military before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.36
No position
Will FPÖ win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?
Ends Sep 29, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Telegram banned by EU country before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Biden pardon Trump?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will Biden finish his term?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.11
No position
Will AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony government?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.43
Yes position
Will Mira Murati join Anthropic?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Iran Nuke in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.15
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes 67.9% 294.65 shares
- Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?OpenAI 20.4% 490.48 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 39% 256.41 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No 68% 567.84 shares
- Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?Yes 22% 60 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No 64.9% 566.25 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No 63% 1.59 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes 8% 363.63 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes 11% 363.64 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes 35% 57.14 shares
- Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?Yes 33.3% 60 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes 34% 58.82 shares