Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $11.95
- Potential payout
- $295
- Potential profit
- $283.05
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- $1.62
Polymarket Trader
orcampaired
0xf404d594cc400f8a7f36b91bc8aa7b266a1d291e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $148.13
- Realized PnL
- $291.78
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Y
Yes position
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.7%
- Current value
- $136.18
- Potential payout
- $232
- Potential profit
- $95.81
- Multiplier
- 1.70x
- User PnL
- $92.1
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$2.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.7
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.94
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.33
Down position
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.56
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.4
N
No position
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.89
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.8
Down position
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.04
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
Ends Feb 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.75
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.6
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.3
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.11
Up position
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.9
Up position
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.86
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.84
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.65
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.3
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
Ends Mar 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.22
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.19
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8
Up position
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Yes 3.5% 35.09 shares
- Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Yes 19% 187.34 shares
- Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15?No 33% 2 shares
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 31% 20 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 13% 21.73 shares
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 11% 20 shares
- Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?Yes 22% 20 shares
- Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?No 48% 6 shares
- Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?No 67% 4 shares
- Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?No 39% 16 shares
- Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15?No 43% 20 shares
- SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?Down 38% 8.7 shares