No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.31K
- Potential profit
- $6.31K
- User PnL
- -$5.86K
Polymarket Trader
quick-turtle
0xf434e8aee8c7f83ed0d7e36f281383ee1d99c6aa
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.08K
- Realized PnL
- $6.19K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.82K
- User PnL
- -$1.73K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.08K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- User PnL
- -$1.05K
No position
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?
Ends Apr 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$978.39
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $891.44
- Potential payout
- $974.25
- Potential profit
- $82.81
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $90.15
Yes position
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $894
- Potential profit
- $894
- User PnL
- -$101.89
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $756.99
- Potential profit
- $756.99
- User PnL
- -$679.32
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $438
- Potential payout
- $512.28
- Potential profit
- $74.28
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $81.15
No position
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $393.97
- Potential payout
- $412.53
- Potential profit
- $18.56
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $21.87
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $277
- Potential profit
- $277
- User PnL
- -$167.63
No position
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.39
- Potential payout
- $259
- Potential profit
- $258.61
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$242.82
Khamzat Chimaev position
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $209
- Potential profit
- $209
- User PnL
- -$2.09
No position
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $140.94
- Potential payout
- $152.37
- Potential profit
- $11.43
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $5.33
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Current value
- $133.03
- Potential payout
- $141
- Potential profit
- $7.97
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $3.74
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $19.07
- Potential payout
- $123
- Potential profit
- $103.94
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$62.12
Yes position
Will Rhea Seehorn win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $113
- Potential profit
- $113
- User PnL
- -$27.17
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $106.82
- Potential profit
- $106.82
- User PnL
- -$103.4
Israel Adesanya position
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $72
- Potential profit
- $72
- User PnL
- -$36.12
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $59.51
- Potential payout
- $68.01
- Potential profit
- $8.5
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $11.9
Yes position
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $1.52
- Potential payout
- $44.09
- Potential profit
- $42.57
- Multiplier
- 28.99x
- User PnL
- -$0.73
Yadong position
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $37
- Potential profit
- $37
- User PnL
- -$26.27
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.31
- Potential profit
- $34.31
- User PnL
- -$31.46
No position
Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 11m?
Ends Jan 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28
- Potential profit
- $28
- User PnL
- -$5.6
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.24
- Potential profit
- $14.24
- User PnL
- -$13.85
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $503.73
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $481.98
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $424.04
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $381.68
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $344.71
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $343.65
No position
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $340.69
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $339.01
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $307.61
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $226.38
No position
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $224.39
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $219.44
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $218.41
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $207.11
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $194.2
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $190.24
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $187.84
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.27
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168.02
No position
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $166.77
No position
Epstein client list released in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.98
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $145.07
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.51
No position
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.78
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 95% 88.26 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 94% 0.68 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 94% 1.49 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 94% 2.34 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 94% 2.5 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 94% 1.79 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 94% 0.25 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 94% 1.17 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 94% 2.89 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 94% 1.6 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 94% 1.9 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No 94% 0.73 shares