Polymarket Trader

Cyclone

0xf4544ad911122d6abcafede027c01671e3d77ecc

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $259.34
Realized PnL: $3.11K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $765.1
Potential profit: $765.1
User PnL: -$5.9

Yes position

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $60
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $540
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$27

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $25.91
Potential payout: $582.31
Potential profit: $556.4
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$89.79

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $42
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $358
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $22.5
Potential payout: $300.01
Potential profit: $277.51
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$10.5

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.4
Potential payout: $264
Potential profit: $263.6
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$12.86

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $18.05
Potential payout: $189.99
Potential profit: $171.94
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$4.35

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $173.85
Potential profit: $173.85
User PnL: -$22.44

Yes position

Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$1.4

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $15.2
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $144.8
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$17.3

PlayTime position

Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $159.29
Potential profit: $159.29
User PnL: -$11.2

Yes position

US x China tariff agreement by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $3.02
Potential payout: $158.71
Potential profit: $155.7
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: -$9.4

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $1.11
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $128.9
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$2.89

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1.45
Potential payout: $126.19
Potential profit: $124.74
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$4.55

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $34.38
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $90.63
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $1.98

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $112.53
Potential profit: $112.53
User PnL: -$2.05

PlayTime position

Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $110
User PnL: -$2.1

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $9.07
Potential payout: $106.67
Potential profit: $97.6
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$2.33

Yes position

Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $97.99
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: $1.1

Yes position

China coup attempt before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.6%
Current value: $3.24
Potential payout: $89.99
Potential profit: $86.75
Multiplier: 27.78x
User PnL: $0.46

Yes position

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $11.1
Potential payout: $88.82
Potential profit: $77.72
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$3.4

Yes position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.93
Potential payout: $88.46
Potential profit: $87.53
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$1.87

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.6%
Current value: $8.44
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $71.56
Multiplier: 9.48x
User PnL: -$1.64

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.56
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $69.44
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$2.79

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09K

Yes position

Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament?

Ends Sep 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $773.73

Yes position

US-China trade deal before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136.93

Yes position

Trump trade deal in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $114.06

Yes position

Barron Trump public statement before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.94

Yes position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.66

Yes position

Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.82

Yes position

China-Vietnam trade deal before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.23

Yes position

Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.69

No position

Will Boston Celtics advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.86

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.7

No position

Israel strike on Iran on June 24?

Ends Jun 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $46.07

Yes position

Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.25

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.48

Yes position

Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on the European Union before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.47

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $35.69

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.62

Knicks position

Celtics vs. Knicks

Ends May 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.54

No position

Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?

Ends Jun 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.8

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.52

Yes position

50% India tariff in effect by August 27?

Ends Aug 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.3

Yes position

Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?

Ends Dec 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.8

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 2.6% 192.31 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 12.6% 80 shares
China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Yes 8% 100 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

No 3.1% 32.58 shares
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

PlayTime 22% 10 shares
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

PlayTime 35% 14.29 shares
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner

Team Resilience 61% 10 shares
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Cloud Rising 10% 10 shares
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Game Master 15% 5 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Yes 6% 10 shares
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes 1.5% 66.67 shares
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

Yes 0.1% 54.3 shares