baldspaniard2

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $13.34
Potential payout: $2.67K
Potential profit: $2.65K
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$554.51

Yes position

Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$39.93

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 18.4%
Current value: $192.84
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $855.21
Multiplier: 5.43x
User PnL: $132.95

No position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 4?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $1.02K
User PnL: -$26.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 15?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $822
Potential profit: $822
User PnL: -$8.22

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 4?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $771.43
Potential profit: $771.43
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $642.17
Potential profit: $642.17
User PnL: -$39.93

Yes position

Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.59
Potential payout: $636.67
Potential profit: $635.08
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2.23

Yes position

Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.65
Potential payout: $550
Potential profit: $548.35
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$4.95

Yes position

Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.36
Potential payout: $542.86
Potential profit: $541.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2.44

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $542.1
Potential profit: $542.1
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $488.02
Potential profit: $488.02
User PnL: -$39.93

Yes position

Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $484.57
Potential profit: $484.57
User PnL: -$39.93

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or below on March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $475.1
Potential profit: $475.1
User PnL: -$35.06

Yes position

Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $5.91
Potential payout: $454.77
Potential profit: $448.85
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: -$34.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 4?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $397.12
Potential profit: $397.12
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 17?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $381.83
Potential profit: $381.83
User PnL: -$24.22

Yes position

Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $376.64
Potential profit: $376.64
User PnL: -$39.93

Yes position

Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $357.94
Potential profit: $357.94
User PnL: -$59.89

Yes position

Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $309.5
Potential profit: $309.5
User PnL: -$6.19

Yes position

Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $296.43
Potential profit: $296.43
User PnL: -$39.93

Yes position

Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $294.57
Potential profit: $294.57
User PnL: -$39.93

Yes position

Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $283.61
Potential profit: $283.61
User PnL: -$39.93

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on March 6?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $480.22

Yes position

Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.09

Yes position

Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.13

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on March 12?

Ends Mar 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.74

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 4?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.24

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.4

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.22

Up position

XRP Up or Down - March 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.4

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.67

No position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.48

No position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 19?

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.03

Down position

Solana Up or Down - March 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.3

Up position

Solana Up or Down - March 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.1

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 19?

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.07

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

Up position

XRP Up or Down - March 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.27

Down position

Solana Up or Down - March 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.6

No position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.1

Up position

XRP Up or Down - March 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.51

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.47

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 18?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 17?