0xf53a...7970

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $218.85
Potential profit: $217.64
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$9.17

Yes position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.14
Potential payout: $190.28
Potential profit: $189.14
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$3.99

Yes position

Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $155.17
Potential profit: $155.17
User PnL: -$9.31

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $1.34
Potential payout: $99.13
Potential profit: $97.79
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$6.59

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $1.12
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $82.21
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$2.88

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $2.04
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $81.29
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$5.46

Yes position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.48
Potential payout: $79.72
Potential profit: $79.24
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$5.52

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$4.95

No position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.35
Potential profit: $48.35
User PnL: -$8.8

Yes position

Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.29
Potential profit: $42.29
User PnL: -$2.96

Yes position

Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.21
Potential profit: $41.21
User PnL: -$3.16

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $2.02
Potential payout: $40.39
Potential profit: $38.37
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$6.34

Yes position

Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?

Implied probability: 8.6%
Current value: $3.36
Potential payout: $38.89
Potential profit: $35.53
Multiplier: 11.57x
User PnL: -$1.54

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.97
Potential profit: $34.97
User PnL: -$0.73

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.38
Potential payout: $34.43
Potential profit: $34.06
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$7.54

Yes position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $33.62
Potential profit: $33.42
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$3.7

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.35
Potential profit: $32.35
User PnL: -$22

Yes position

Will Mario Almici win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.93
Potential profit: $29.93
User PnL: -$7.83

Yes position

Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.65
Potential profit: $29.65
User PnL: -$5.04

No position

Will Giuseppe Tortora win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.73
Potential profit: $27.73
User PnL: -$8.32

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27
Potential profit: $27
User PnL: -$5.13

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.4
Potential profit: $22.4
User PnL: -$5.6

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.05
Potential profit: $21.05
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.05
Potential profit: $21.05
User PnL: -$5.31

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $33.36

Yes position

Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.7

Yes position

Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20.67

Yes position

Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.4

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 21?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.61

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: $14.02

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.92

Yes position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: $9.75

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.97

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.93

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.48

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.97

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.85

Yes position

Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

Implied probability: 82%
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $5.2

Yes position

Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.53

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.11

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $4.04

Yes position

Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.99

Yes position

Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.88

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.34

Yes position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $3.06

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.92

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $2.64

Yes position

Will Manuel Flavio Minervini win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election?