No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $4.29K
- Potential payout
- $4.31K
- Potential profit
- $10.76
- User PnL
- $720.21
Polymarket Trader
bismuth
0xf6237ff93cc8f54a04379f46355bc7d1e47ebb2c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $14.45K
- Realized PnL
- $6.48K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $2.7K
- Potential payout
- $3.36K
- Potential profit
- $655.2
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$71.28
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $998.76
- Potential payout
- $1.62K
- Potential profit
- $625.24
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$153.84
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $1.4K
- Potential payout
- $1.42K
- Potential profit
- $14.16
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $27.47
No position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $965.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $34.5
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $169.5
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $661.41
- Potential payout
- $694.39
- Potential profit
- $32.98
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $41.31
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $506.79
- Potential payout
- $559.99
- Potential profit
- $53.2
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $64.4
Yes position
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $187.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $312.5
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $362
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $38
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $58
Yes position
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49%
- Current value
- $196
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $204
- Multiplier
- 2.04x
- User PnL
- -$101
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $398
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $2
- User PnL
- $48
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $346.68
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $3.32
- User PnL
- $5.23
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.3%
- Current value
- $267.75
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $32.25
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $58.35
Yes position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $280
- Potential profit
- $280
- User PnL
- -$200
No position
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $204.69
- Potential payout
- $205
- Potential profit
- $0.31
- User PnL
- $25.44
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $171
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $29
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $199.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $33.5
Yes position
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $199.9
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$126.9
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $189
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $11
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Current value
- $140.63
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $9.38
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $24.13
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $148.8
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $1.2
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05?
Ends Aug 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $102.9
- Potential payout
- $114.97
- Potential profit
- $12.07
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $7.47
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $4.54
- Potential payout
- $114.91
- Potential profit
- $110.37
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- -$91.49
Yes position
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.85
- Potential payout
- $113.69
- Potential profit
- $112.84
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$50.31
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4600 and $4700 on August 22?
Ends Aug 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $900
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $752.14
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $585.94
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $437.36
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $420.74
Yes position
Will Ethereum reach $4700 August 18–24?
Ends Aug 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $400.5
Yes position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $305.52
No position
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $294.75
Yes position
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $222
Yes position
Kristi Noem out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $202.54
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168.31
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160
No position
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $158.1
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150.65
Yes position
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?
Ends Sep 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.15
No position
Will Base launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $146.28
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.65
No position
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136
No position
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.61
Yes position
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $118.54
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4300 and $4400 on August 18?
Ends Aug 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4000 and $4100 on August 18?
Ends Aug 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $116
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 94% 200 shares
- Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?No 99.8% 499.99 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes 86% 200 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 59.2% 200 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 97.4% 37.96 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.6% 1,434.99 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 96.9% 378.02 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 8.1% 1,000 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?No 98% 100 shares
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes 38.5% 500 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No 99.1% 500 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 5.4% 1,000 shares