0xf624...43f9

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $4.87
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $65.14
Multiplier: 14.39x
User PnL: -$2.13

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.7%
Current value: $13.64
Potential payout: $69.39
Potential profit: $55.76
Multiplier: 5.09x
User PnL: -$0.47

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $33.65
Potential payout: $65.34
Potential profit: $31.69
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $3.59

Yes position

Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 13.6%
Current value: $5.93
Potential payout: $43.75
Potential profit: $37.82
Multiplier: 7.38x
User PnL: -$1.07

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $37.54
Potential payout: $42.66
Potential profit: $5.12
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $3.54

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $10.2
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $29.8
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $38.04
Potential profit: $38.02
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$6.98

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $33.21
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$7.5

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $25.23
Potential payout: $29.16
Potential profit: $3.94
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $1.23

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Implied probability: 31%
Current value: $7.75
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $17.25
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 17, 2027

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $12.62
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $11.19
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $2.62

No position

Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026

Implied probability: 87.2%
Current value: $19.23
Potential payout: $22.05
Potential profit: $2.82
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: -$0.77

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $19.79
Potential payout: $21.28
Potential profit: $1.49
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?

Implied probability: 33.9%
Current value: $6.4
Potential payout: $18.92
Potential profit: $12.51
Multiplier: 2.95x
User PnL: -$0.6

Yes position

Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 66%
Current value: $12.45
Potential payout: $18.87
Potential profit: $6.42
Multiplier: 1.52x
User PnL: $2.45

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 38.2%
Current value: $7
Potential payout: $18.32
Potential profit: $11.32
Multiplier: 2.62x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $6.92
Potential payout: $16.28
Potential profit: $9.36
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $6.59
Potential payout: $16.28
Potential profit: $9.69
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$0.41

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $4.61
Potential payout: $15.63
Potential profit: $11.02
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$0.39

No position

Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $15.35
Potential payout: $15.36
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $1.35

No position

Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $13.87
Potential payout: $13.89
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $3.87

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.59
Potential profit: $12.59
User PnL: -$3.84

No position

Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $11.76
Potential payout: $11.76
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $1.76

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.56

No position

Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.52

Yes position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.05

No position

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.92

Yes position

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.91

Yes position

Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.22

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.59

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 6.1%
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: $9.17

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.51

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.92

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 94%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $6.29

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $6.12

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.11

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $5.04

No position

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Implied probability: 65.5%
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $4.99

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.94

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.85

No position

Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.71

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.62

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $2.91

No position

Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.66

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?